Abbott Leads Texas; Talarico Edges Paxton in Poll
Abbott Leads Texas; Talarico Edges Paxton in Poll
The News
A new University of Texas/Texas Politics Project poll shows Democrat James Talarico narrowly ahead of Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton in the Texas Senate race, while Gov. Greg Abbott holds a five-point lead in his reelection bid.
Talarico takes 42% to Paxton's 39%, with 14% expressing no preference. The survey of 1,200 registered voters carries a margin of error of plus or minus 2.83 percentage points — meaning both leads sit within or near the margin.
The topline: Republicans still lead every major statewide race in Texas, but by single digits.
The Numbers
Talarico is consolidating his own side better than Paxton is consolidating his: 91% of Democrats back Talarico, while only 79% of Republicans have committed to Paxton.
Independents are largely unspoken for — 43% express no preference in the Senate race.
The poll also found 57% of Texas voters oppose data center construction in their own community, an issue both parties are now navigating.
Timeline
Abbott beat Beto O'Rourke by nearly 11 points.
An Emerson College poll of 1,000 likely voters showed Paxton ahead of Talarico, 47% to 46%.
The UT/Texas Politics Project poll is released, showing Talarico up three and Abbott up five over Democrat Hinojosa.
Reactions
Outlets disagree on what the numbers mean. USA Today framed the Senate result as two candidates who remain statistically tied. Newsweek noted Talarico is polling more favorably than O'Rourke did at a comparable point in the 2018 cycle, while stressing the race is still too close to call.
The Cook Political Report now rates the Texas Senate seat a toss-up. It had previously rated the seat solidly Republican.
Prediction markets are split down the middle: Kalshi prices the Senate race at 50-50, with more than $9.8 million in trading volume.
What's Next
Nate Silver's FLIPR model puts Talarico's win probability at roughly 59–61%, rating the race between toss-up and leans Democratic. Silver has also flagged Talarico's fundraising as a possible source of Democratic overconfidence, given nationalized donor patterns.
Three things to watch before November: whether Talarico can pull in the 43% of voters with no Senate preference, whether Paxton's soft 79% Republican consolidation firms up, and how hard the data center backlash bites in a state courting the industry.
More
The governor's race tells the same story from the other direction. Abbott is still winning — but Hinojosa is holding a margin that was nearly 11 points four years ago to five, a compression that runs across every major statewide contest in the poll.
Sources: The Center Square, USA Today, Newsweek.
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