China's Exports Jump 25% Before Xi's DC Visit
China's Exports Jump 25% Before Xi's DC Visit
The News
China's exports grew 25% in August from a year earlier, official customs data released Tuesday in Beijing showed, as a global build-out of AI infrastructure keeps foreign demand for Chinese high-tech components running hot.
Imports rose 28.2%, short of the 30% economists expected in a Reuters poll — a sign domestic demand at home is still weak.
The gap pushed China's trade surplus to $119.09 billion, up from $112.5 billion in July.
The Numbers
Exports: up 25% in U.S. dollar terms, in line with the Reuters poll forecast and faster than July's 23.9%.
Imports: up 28.2%, versus 30% expected, and up from 27.5% in July.
Trade surplus: $119.09 billion in August, against $112.5 billion in July.
Timeline
Chinese growth slows to 4.3%, a more than three-year low, against Beijing's 4.5-5% target range for the year.
Exports rise 23.9% and imports 27.5%, producing a $112.5 billion surplus. Data released the following month shows domestic demand and investment weakening further in July, with manufacturing activity contracting for a second straight month.
G20 finance ministers meet in the United States and issue a joint statement criticizing economies that lean heavily on exports. China is the only member to dissent.
A Reuters poll of analysts predicts August export growth accelerated.
Customs data confirms the 25% export jump and the 28.2% import miss.
Reactions
Beijing rejected the G20 criticism, calling the trade complaints "an excuse to pressure and restrict China."
People's Bank of China Governor Pan Gongsheng said in a speech at the G20 summit that China has never actively pursued a trade surplus and has not depreciated its currency to gain a competitive edge, adding that the country's market would stay open to foreign businesses.
Neo Wang, China strategist at Evercore ISI, expects growth to pick up in the second half, citing what he called a "sense of urgency and determination in Beijing's recent policy communications" and stabilizing manufacturing activity in August.
What's Next
Chinese leader Xi Jinping is scheduled to visit Washington later this month for talks with President Trump. Wang said Washington's frustration over trade is unlikely to derail the relationship, pointing to the narrowing U.S. deficit with China and America's mounting trade disputes with other partners.
Economists also see more monetary easing coming. Shan Guo, a partner at China-focused Hutong Research, expects one or two interest-rate cuts by year-end, with the timing tied to Federal Reserve policy, Ministry of Finance bond issuance and the pace of the yuan's appreciation.
More
Exports have become the primary engine of Chinese growth, cushioning the drag from geopolitical shocks, sluggish consumer demand and a slump in investment. That performance is exactly what Western trading partners are objecting to, demanding Beijing rebalance toward its own consumers instead of shipping its way out of a slowdown.
Poll
How should Washington respond to China's record trade surplus?
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