Cook Shifts New Hampshire Senate Race to Toss-Up
Cook Shifts New Hampshire Senate Race to Toss-Up
The News
Cook Political Report moved New Hampshire's open Senate race from Lean Democrat to Toss Up on Tuesday, a rating change that favors Republican John Sununu over Democratic Rep. Chris Pappas.
It is the second major forecaster to shift the race rightward this month. Inside Elections made a similar move in early September.
The change matters because Democrats need the seat. Republicans hold a 53-seat Senate majority and are trying to expand it.
The Numbers
Seven Senate races are now rated toss-ups, including Alaska, Iowa, Maine, Michigan, Ohio and Texas alongside New Hampshire.
New Hampshire backed Kamala Harris in 2024 by 2.8 percentage points.
Timeline
John Sununu enters the U.S. Senate, representing New Hampshire.
Sununu leaves the Senate after Jeanne Shaheen defeats him. He has been out of the chamber for 18 years.
New Hampshire votes for Kamala Harris by 2.8 points, keeping its pattern of leaning Democratic in federal contests.
Inside Elections shifts the New Hampshire Senate race toward Republicans.
Cook Political Report moves the race from Lean Democrat to Toss Up, citing national Republican money pouring into the state.
Reactions
Cook Political Report called the flow of national Republican money into New Hampshire "a flashing red light for Democrats."
Cook frames the central question as whether Sununu can separate his own brand from President Trump's in a state where Trump is unpopular.
Pappas is running ads tying Sununu to Trump on Iran, prices and health care cuts.
Conservative outlets seized on the move. RedState and Townhall both cast the rating change as bad news for Democrats and a sign the seat is genuinely in play.
What's Next
The race runs to Election Day with both parties treating New Hampshire as a seat that could decide the size of the Senate majority.
Watch independent voters, who have historically backed Republicans for governor but Democrats in federal races.
Watch Trump's approval rating in New Hampshire, which Cook treats as the main drag on Sununu's standing.
More rating changes are possible if the national money advantage holds.
More
Republicans are defending razor-thin House margins at the same time they push to grow the Senate map, which is why forecasters treat a single New Hampshire seat as outsized.
Sununu's pitch rests on a personal brand built in a state that splits its tickets. Pappas is betting that a federal race in New Hampshire still breaks the way it has for nearly two decades.
Poll
Who wins the New Hampshire Senate seat?
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