Democrats See Midterm Wave as Cash Falls Short

"We continue to just get very, very bullish polling results, even out of districts the president won by 12, 13, 14 points," a senior Democratic operative, granted anonymity to speak candidly, told The Washington Sun. "It's really striking."

Mike Smith, president of House Majority PAC, the flagship Democratic House super PAC, said of donors: "We all wish that more people were stepping up and doing larger checks. And would that have a material effect on the battlefield? Yes." On red-district targets, he added: "We have a bunch of Trump plus 9 to 13 seats. Which of those are gonna come online? I think that's a big unknown at this point, but we believe there will be many that do."

Republicans say the math still protects them. "You can be a shitty candidate and have a shitty campaign and bad environment, and still win by one instead of nine," said GOP consultant Corry Bliss, who ran the party's premier super PAC in 2018. "Of course people are pissed off, but you only have to win by one in these red states."

GOP pollster Whit Ayres was blunter about the president's standing: "The president's job approval is around 38 right now, and that doesn't bode well for Republicans' fortunes in the House or the Senate. In this environment, anything can happen."

Democratic strategist Jesse Ferguson framed the difference from Trump's first midterm this way: "In 2018, voters didn't like Trump's tweets but they still liked him on the economy. In 2026, they don't like the tweets or the economy. They're not sold on the Dem brand either — but we spent two years making the case against Republicans and it stuck."

Amy Walter of the Cook Political Report set the bar for a wave: "Democrats could have a good Election Night just by winning seats Trump carried by six points or less, which would be enough to take back control of the House. But if Democrats also win in districts that Trump carried by double digits, it would reveal the limits of his ability to pursue unpopular policies that are felt most acutely in rural America — like tariffs, the Iran war and Medicaid cuts. That, in my book, would define a wave election."