Drug Prices Post Steepest Drop Since 1963

Drug Prices Post Steepest Drop Since 1963

Engraving of a prescription pill bottle with scattered pills

The News

U.S. prescription drug prices fell 0.8% in July and are down 3.1% from a year ago — the steepest year-over-year drop since 1963, according to new federal consumer price index data.

President Donald Trump is taking credit for the decline. The White House said it is the result of his "most favored nation" drug deals with pharmaceutical firms and the TrumpRx website, which it said are "delivering real relief to American families and putting patients first."

Drug pricing experts told the Associated Press the picture is more complicated. They said generic and biosimilar competition, plus a Biden-era law letting Medicare negotiate drug prices, are potentially bigger contributors.

Timeline

2022

Congress passes the Inflation Reduction Act under President Joe Biden, allowing Medicare for the first time to haggle with drugmakers over the cost of its top-selling prescription drugs.

January 2026

New prices for the first 10 drugs negotiated under that law take effect. Three separate pricing experts — KFF's Juliette Cubanski, Harvard Medical School's Dr. Benjamin Rome and Vanderbilt's Stacie Dusetzina — said the change likely moved aggregate prices.

July 2026

A new Trump administration policy lowering the price of GLP-1 weight loss drugs for certain eligible Medicare enrollees takes effect. Only its first month shows up in the data.

Last week

The Labor Department releases the index showing the 0.8% monthly and 3.1% annual declines. Democratic Sen. Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts sends the administration a letter questioning the White House's savings claims for TrumpRx.

Reactions

"It's difficult to know in one number what's going on beneath the hood," said Cubanski, a vice president and director of the Program on Medicare Policy at the healthcare research nonprofit KFF. "I don't think we can attribute this price reduction to any one specific policy change or initiative."

"When big blockbuster products face generic competition, their prices fall," said Rome, a health policy researcher at Harvard Medical School. He pointed to biosimilars that treat the same autoimmune conditions as the brand-name drug Humira. Dusetzina, a professor of health policy at Vanderbilt University School of Medicine, said competition has also cut the price of Stelara, a biologic that treats chronic inflammatory conditions.

On the White House's signature policy, Dusetzina was blunt. "These policies are under development and have not affected payers in the index," she told the AP in an email. "Ultimately, I believe that the change is likely to be more directly related to the IRA's policies and the Medicare drug price negotiation program than it is to current policies."

The White House said TrumpRx has generated $700 million in savings for patients but did not explain how it reached that number. Warren challenged it, writing that Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. has acknowledged TrumpRx does not store patient, health or prescription information: "Without this information, the accuracy of any claim of savings made by the Trump administration is unreliable."

What's Next

The Trump administration has carried forward the Medicare negotiations, as the law requires, and projects additional prescription drug savings in the years ahead.

The impact of the "most favored nation" deals remains unmeasurable for now: the contracts with drug companies have not been made public, and the models designed to put the policy into practice in federal health programs have not taken effect yet. The GLP-1 discount for Medicare enrollees will show up more fully in coming months of data.

More

One caveat cuts through the whole fight: the Labor Department's index does not measure what patients pay at the counter. It measures what pharmacies get paid — by insurers and consumers combined. Insurers often absorb much of the cost, and what a patient actually pays depends on whether they are insured and which plan they have. Some Americans still depend on expensive drugs with no cheaper alternative.

Higher health spending and federal policy changes are also pushing up insurance premiums and out-of-pocket costs, which means falling drug prices can coexist with bigger healthcare bills.

"A price measure like the CPI is not going to adequately capture consumers' experience with healthcare and prescription drugs and other hospital services, the same way it would for groceries and gas and other tangible services that people go and pay for at the store," Rome said.

Sources: Associated Press via Yahoo News and The Independent; The National Pulse.

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