Hinson Leads Iowa; Crowley Ahead in Wisconsin

Two polls released Wednesday show the marquee 2026 races in Iowa and Wisconsin are close enough to be statistical ties.

In Iowa, a Suffolk University poll found Republican Rep. Ashley Hinson leading Democratic state Rep. Josh Turek 45% to 41% in the race to replace retiring Republican Sen. Joni Ernst.

The same Suffolk poll found Democrat Rob Sand ahead of Republican Zach Lahn 48% to 44% in the Iowa governor's race.

In Wisconsin, a Marquette Law School poll of likely voters found Democrat David Crowley leading Republican Tom Tiffany for governor by a margin slightly larger than the poll's margin of error, according to The Center Square.

The Numbers

Suffolk surveyed 500 likely Iowa voters from August 20 to 23. The margin of error is 4.4 percentage points — wide enough to leave both Iowa contests inside a statistical tie.

Earlier surveys had Hinson up two and three points over Turek, so her four-point edge is a modest improvement, not a breakout.

The Cook Political Report rates the Iowa Senate seat a toss-up. Republicans currently hold the Senate 53-47, and Cook rates five of the six toss-up seats as Republican-held — which makes Iowa one of the Democrats' clearest pickup chances.

Forbes reported that President Trump's average approval rating stands at 38% in Nate Silver's Silver Bulletin average.

Why Iowa Is Competitive at All

Iowa backed Trump by more than 13 points in 2024. A state that lopsided would not normally produce two dead-heat statewide races.

That gap between the 2024 result and the 2026 polling is the whole story: it suggests an electorate that is more volatile than its partisan baseline implies, and it is why national money is expected to follow.

Wisconsin

Republicans have been hoping to flip the Wisconsin governorship in November, and Newsweek framed the Marquette result as a tight race that keeps Tiffany in contention.

USA Today reported that supporters of Francesca Hong, who lost the Democratic primary, are now rallying behind Crowley — a consolidation that helps explain his edge in the Marquette numbers.