Iceland Votes on EU Talks Under Trump Shadow

Prime Minister Kristrun Frostadottir, who leads the Social Democratic Alliance-led coalition, frames a yes vote as keeping options open. "You can be a 'maybe' person on the EU and still say 'yes' (to talks) because you want to see what this looks like," she said.

She has also called the geopolitics an opening: "I think this is a great time for Iceland to join, because of the geopolitical situation we're in. It also gives us a stronger position, I think, in accession talks."

On Greenland, Frostadottir was blunt in an interview last month: "Obviously, all of this Greenland matter concerns people, right? It's a huge problem. The fact that we have leaders in the free world talking like this is an issue. It's a massive issue, and I know Icelanders are very concerned about it."

The opposition Independence Party leads the no camp on sovereignty grounds. "What's a seat at the table worth if we don't have the final word?" party leader Gudrun Hafsteinsdottir said in a statement.

Ragnar Hjalmarsson, a senior adviser at the Icelandic think tank Varda, told CNN that "the Trump administration's actions toward Greenland caused some level of fear. The brazenness of it caused angst in Iceland." He added that it made Icelanders aware of the island's strategic importance but "has, however, not changed what the voters are talking about."

Almut Moller of the European Policy Centre in Brussels said the security picture has shifted the EU's calculation: "For the European Union, Iceland will be in the security environment a much more relevant partner compared to, say, 10 years ago."

NATO's supreme allied commander for Europe, Gen. Alexus Grynkewich, said during this month's exercise that "supposed Russian and Chinese research vessels are conducting joint patrols" in the region but "we all know they're not up here counting puffins," according to the Telegraph.