Iran War Could Push 23M Children Into Poverty

Iran War Could Push 23M Children Into Poverty

The News

The Iran war's fuel-price shock is forcing the world's poorest families to choose between keeping their children in school and keeping them fed, the Associated Press reports.

A recent United Nations Children's Fund report found that if the war continues, it could push up to 23.4 million more children into poverty by the end of this year. About 80% of them would be in Africa and Asia.

Unlike the mass school closures of COVID-19, this damage is close to invisible: no shuttered buildings, just families who can no longer afford the boat ride, the bus fare or the lost day of work.

How the fuel price hits a classroom

Higher fuel prices raise the cost of nearly every part of education — getting students and teachers to school, moving pencils and chalk into classrooms, and reaching remote communities with aid workers, according to the AP. Governments squeezed by rising food and energy bills have less left for schools.

On Cambodia's Tonle Sap, the largest freshwater lake in Southeast Asia, everything already costs more because supplies arrive by boat. "Even the electricity to run this lab is 10-times higher," said Samphors Vorn of the nonprofit Aide et Action, which supports a school in the floating village of Kampong Prahok.

Sou Sreynich, 13, first entered a classroom at 10 — her mother waited until she could swim, fearing the school boat could capsize. Teachers at her school say 10 students have drowned over the years. Her family fishes for a living, and rising fuel prices mean they can no longer afford to travel to the deeper water where fish are plentiful. When money is tight, she skips a day or two of school to work alongside her parents.

"I want to complete my studies," she said.

Timeline

April 2026

In Vietnam, sisters Ly, 16, and Nhi, 13 — two of nine children in a fishing family on the country's northern coast — are returned to school by the Hanoi-based Blue Dragon Children's Foundation after dropping out to work long hours in a restaurant. Their father had lost his fishing job after the war pushed diesel prices so high that boat owners could not afford to put to sea. For 13-year-old Nhi, the work was also illegal under Vietnam's child labor laws. The girls are identified by first name only under Vietnamese laws protecting vulnerable minors.

June 29-30, 2026

AP photographs students boarding gas-powered school boats in Kampong Prahok, many of them steered by students no older than the children climbing aboard.

Aug. 17, 2026

The AP publishes its account of the war's slow-burning toll on education across Southeast Asia, South Asia and Africa.

Reactions

"The Iran war is likely going to force millions of children out of school and could force millions of children to make the decision not to enroll in the first place," said Sabrina Hervey of the Qatar-based Education Above All Foundation.

Michael Brosowski of the Blue Dragon Children's Foundation said families at a financial breaking point go into triage — keeping some children enrolled while pulling others out to work. Children out of school, he said, are far more vulnerable to exploitation, trafficking and homelessness. "It's the tipping point for a lot of families," Brosowski said.

Arshad Malik of Save the Children International said that in some South Asian nations girls will be hit hardest because families tend to prioritize sons, raising the risk of dropouts and child marriages. South Asia accounts for 45% of the world's child brides, the highest share of any region, according to UNICEF.

What's Next

Developing countries that import their energy remain the most exposed, with rising fertilizer costs and falling remittances squeezing them further, the AP reports. A U.N. Development Programme report warned that pressure on Bangladesh's finances from fuel costs and subsidies could leave the government with less to spend on health care and education, threatening years of progress there.

School meal programs are the next pressure point. More than 466 million children worldwide get at least one meal a day at school, according to the U.N. World Food Programme — meals that keep children enrolled and able to concentrate. Hervey said those programs could come under strain as the conflict disrupts fertilizer shipments and raises transport costs, especially in West and Central African countries that rely on imported food. Across northern Nigeria, health and aid workers say it is becoming more common for children to relapse into malnutrition.

"I'm really afraid to see what's going to happen," Hervey said.

More

The Tonle Sap's floating villages were already a hard place to get an education before the war. Climate change has made the lake's floods and droughts less predictable, and every trip to a classroom is a boat trip. The war did not create that problem — it priced the boat ride out of reach.

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