Kashkari: Canada Tariff Fight Could Extend Inflation

Kashkari: Canada Tariff Fight Could Extend Inflation

The News

The American cost of a collapsed deal

The clearest warning about what the US-Canada trade war means for Americans came Sunday from a Federal Reserve official.

Neel Kashkari, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, told CBS's "Face the Nation with Margaret Brennan" that the fight with Canada could stretch out US inflation if it drags on.

He described five years of elevated inflation driven largely by supply shocks. "One of those supply shocks is the trade and tariff conflicts," he said. Once the trade picture settles into a steady state, he added, "businesses can adjust, and the inflationary impact can fade into the background." Kashkari is one regional Fed bank president giving his own read; he did not offer a Fed forecast.

What gets more expensive

CNN, citing US trade data, identified three categories of Canadian goods Americans buy that are now covered by the levies.

Timeline

Saturday

The United States began imposing 50% tariffs Saturday on roughly $20 billion worth of Canadian imports after talks in Washington failed, CBS News, CNN and CNBC reported. Prime Minister Mark Carney has promised "dollar-for-dollar" retaliation starting Sept. 8, targeting steel, dairy, appliances, agricultural equipment, pulp, paper and electronics, with details to come this week. US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said Saturday that no new talks are scheduled.

Reactions

"The longer there's back and forth on the trade front, just like the longer there's back and forth in the conflict of Iran, the imprint and inflation end up being extended and delayed," Kashkari said, according to CBS News.

Carney's own account is blunter. "In recent days, the United States proposed new terms that were un-economic, unfair, and undermined the net benefits for Canada and called into question the reliability of any deal," he said at a Sunday press conference, as reported by The Hill. Asked why it felt like his country was going to war, he answered: "In short, they asked too much and they offered too little. You're at war when you get attacked. We got attacked."

He told reporters he was not prepared to "compromise Canada's sovereignty or undermine our key industries," CNBC reported, and said Canada was acting "reluctantly," acknowledging that "some U.S. companies and some U.S. states are innocent bystanders in a dispute that they did not want."

The administration's version is that Canada walked away from the best offer available. Greer called the lost agreement a "missed opportunity" in a Saturday post on X and criticized Canada's "prolonged retaliation against the United States." He wrote: "For decades, Canada has enjoyed the most favorable access to the U.S. market of any country. And from the beginning of President Trump's trade program, Canada has continued to enjoy the best treatment in the world, even after — like China — retaliating against the United States."

Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy predicted Carney will fold. "To think that they're going to go to war with Donald Trump and actually win that war with the U.S., I think it's foolish on their part," Duffy said on "Fox News Sunday," as reported by CTV News. The Hill reported he expects Carney to "come to the table" because the tariffs will be "devastating" for his country.

Republicans are not united

Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine) urged the administration to "consider the negative impact" of the trade war in a Saturday statement posted to X and reported by The Hill. "Ever since the tariffs were first announced, I have heard from many businesses, farmers, and lobstermen concerned about the cost of navigating the tariffs, the lack of domestic supply chains, and the likely imposition of retaliatory tariffs by Canada," she wrote, saying she wants both sides back at the table and warning of "higher costs, risk, and uncertainty for Maine businesses."

Former Vice President Mike Pence went further on CNN's "State of the Union," per The Hill: "American businesses and American consumers pay American tariffs, and I think the last thing we need right now, as our economy is getting back on its feet, is a trade war with Canada." His advice to the president: "Drive a hard bargain. But let's pursue free trade with free nations."

Other Republicans backed the president. Sen. Bernie Moreno (R-Ohio) posted that "Canada's economy only exists by stealing American jobs," adding, "We no longer have a President that sells out American workers," The Hill reported.

What's Next

Ottawa's opposition wants the offer made public

Canada's Conservatives are asking the Carney government to release the full details of the US offer it rejected, CTV News reported. Party members say they support the decision to reject it but are unclear what was actually on the table. Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre is separately calling on Carney to reconvene Parliament over the decision to walk away, according to CTV News.

More

The two countries sold $880 billion in goods and services to one another in 2025, per CBS News. Canada is the second-largest US trading partner after Mexico.

Paper products — parchment paper, paper cups and plates, and kraftliner used in the outer layer of cardboard boxes — plus roughly three dozen types of plywood. Those fall in broader categories that accounted for about $1.5 billion of US imports from Canada last year.

Alcohol: wine, beer and spirits including whiskey, vodka and gin, about $1.5 billion last year.

Dairy: milk, cheese, butter and whey, about $780 million last year.

CNN noted that with the war in Iran already pushing up energy and transportation costs, US businesses have less room to absorb another hit, raising the odds some of the tariff cost reaches consumers.

In Canada, the Canadian dollar fell 0.55% against the US dollar by 4:30 a.m. ET Monday and also slipped against the euro, pound and yen, CNBC reported. "As a smaller, more open economy, Canada has more to lose from this," strategists at ING wrote in a Monday note cited by CNBC. CTV News reported an analysis estimating nearly 90,000 Canadian jobs could be affected by the 50% tariffs, with Ontario, Quebec and British Columbia facing the biggest potential losses.

Two accounts of how it fell apart

Carney's top US envoy told Bloomberg the talks collapsed over a range of issues where the written text of a potential deal was at odds with what the Canadian side believed it had agreed to.

The legal question, unresolved

Trump made his first extended public response early Sunday on Truth Social: "Canada wants the benefits of being a State, without being one!!! They have also charged our great farmers, for many years, massive amounts of Tariffs. No more!!!" The tariffs were authorized under Section 338 of the Tariff Act of 1930 and bypass prior exemptions for goods under the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement, The Hill reported. Reason, in analysis published with the Volokh Conspiracy, argues Section 338 has gone unused since at least the 1940s and was arguably superseded by trade legislation passed in 1962 and 1974 — that is opinion analysis, not a ruling, and no court has decided the question.

The Frank covered the tariffs taking effect in Canada Tariffs Take Effect; Ottawa Retaliates Sept. 8 and Trump's response and the legal challenges in Trump Digs In on Canada; Legal Challenges Loom.

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