Private Hiring Hits Weakest Pace Since January
Private Hiring Hits Weakest Pace Since January
The News
American private employers added about 38,000 jobs in August, the weakest month of hiring since January, payroll processor ADP reported Wednesday.
That is down from an upwardly revised 46,000 in July and well below the Dow Jones consensus estimate of 47,000, according to CNBC.
Job growth was concentrated in a handful of industries. Manufacturing, professional services and trade all shed workers.
The Numbers
Education and health services led all categories with 45,000 jobs added, CNBC reported. Leisure and hospitality added 16,000 and construction added 12,000.
On the losing side: manufacturing shed 17,000 jobs, professional and business services lost 16,000, and both natural resources and mining and trade, transportation and utilities fell by 5,000 each.
Almost all of the growth came from the biggest employers. Companies with 500 or more workers added 34,000 jobs; firms with fewer than 50 employees added just 3,000.
Pay gains were flat. For workers who stayed put, base pay rose 3% from a year earlier and gross pay — which includes tips, commissions and bonuses — rose 4.4%, both unchanged from July, CNBC reported. ZeroHedge, citing the same release, said pay growth for job-changers slipped from 7.5% to 7.3%.
Timeline
ADP's initial count of 44,000 private jobs was later revised up to 46,000, per ZeroHedge's reading of the report.
The government's nonfarm payrolls count showed a decline of 23,000 jobs, according to CNBC.
ADP reports 38,000 private jobs added in August — the smallest monthly gain since January.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics releases its August nonfarm payrolls report.
Reactions
ADP chief economist Nela Richardson tied the slowdown to what workers are being paid, not just how many are hired. "Pay can tell us a lot about today's choppy hiring," she said in remarks quoted by ZeroHedge. "To understand hiring patterns, you have to look deeply into where pay growth is accelerating, where it's slowing, and for whom."
Richardson added that "once-predictable wage growth has been overtaken by the complexities of demographic change, persistent inflation, and AI's effects on jobs."
CNBC framed the report as a positive number that still points to "a broader slowdown in the labor market." MarketWatch called it a second small increase in a row and evidence that hiring cooled over the summer.
What's Next
The bigger number lands Friday, Sept. 4, when the Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes August nonfarm payrolls. Economists expect a gain of 53,000 after July's 23,000 decline, with the unemployment rate holding at 4.1%, CNBC reported.
ADP's count is a private estimate and often diverges from the government's, but two soft months in a row raise the stakes for Friday's release — and for the Federal Reserve's read on how fast the labor market is cooling.
More
Outlets covering the release reported slightly different headline figures from the same ADP report: CNBC put the August gain at 38,000, ZeroHedge at 37,000 and MarketWatch at 36,000. All three agreed it was the weakest month since January and that July was revised up to 46,000.
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