Senate Now a Pure Toss-Up, Forecaster Says

Control of the U.S. Senate is in play with less than two months to Election Day, after forecaster Decision Desk HQ moved the chamber to a "pure toss-up" on Monday night — its first toss-up rating since early June.

Republicans hold the Senate 53-47, according to Newsweek. Democrats need to net four seats to take the majority, which means holding everything they have and flipping four Republican-held seats.

These are model forecasts and polling averages, not results. Individual state polls below are reported with the pollster and the field dates.

The Numbers

Decision Desk HQ posted on X on Sept. 7 that its forecast now shows the Senate as a pure toss-up, with an average outcome across 1 million simulations of a 50-50 tie — which would be a narrow Republican hold because of Vice President JD Vance's tie-breaking vote. It added that the most likely outcomes are now "about equivalently" a 50-50 tie and 51-49 for Democrats. The same forecast gives Democrats a 67% chance of winning the House.

Nate Silver's Silver Bulletin, which updated its averages Sunday, Sept. 6, has Democrats ahead in nine of the 12 competitive Senate races — North Carolina, Georgia, Minnesota, Maine, Ohio, New Hampshire, Michigan, Texas and Alaska — with Republicans leading in Iowa, Kansas and Florida, per Newsweek. Silver's model rates Texas "lean Democrat" and the most likely tipping-point seat, with a 13% chance of deciding the majority outright.

North Carolina: Silver's average has Democrat Roy Cooper up 8.5 over Republican Michael Whatley. An Elon University poll of likely voters fielded July 23-31 had Cooper up 11, 53% to 42%, with a margin of error of 5.6 points. A High Point University survey from Aug. 18 was tighter at 50-45, and Carolina Journal polling this month showed a 12.5-point spread. Cooper has raised more than $35 million to Whatley's $16.1 million.

Maine: Silver's average has Democrat Troy Jackson up 4.0 over Republican Sen. Susan Collins. A Fox News poll conducted by Beacon Research and Shaw & Company Research, surveying 1,000 registered voters Aug. 6-10, had Jackson up 2, 48% to 46%, with 4% undecided. A Hart Research Associates poll for the Democratic-aligned Senate Majority PAC, fielded July 27-Aug. 1, had Jackson up 49-45. A University of New Hampshire poll in mid-July had Jackson ahead by 3. The RealClearPolitics average puts his lead at 2.3.

Ohio: Silver's average has Democrat Sherrod Brown up 3.3 over Republican Sen. Jon Husted. Fox News, surveying 1,008 registered voters Aug. 6-10, put Brown up 8, with 40% naming inflation their top concern. Abacus Data had Brown up 6 on Aug. 28, 52-46. Pollsmax's average still gives Husted a 1.1-point edge.

Texas: Silver's average has Democrat James Talarico up 1.8 over Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton. Overton Insights, polling 1,167 likely voters in late August, had Talarico up half a point, 44% to 43.6%, with 12.6% undecided. Emerson College and Nexstar Media had Paxton up 1. A University of Texas poll gave Talarico 3.

Alaska: Silver's average has Democrat Mary Peltola up 0.8 over Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan in a ranked-choice race. Alaska Survey Research's Aug. 20-23 poll of 1,495 likely voters put Peltola ahead 51-49 in the final ranked-choice round. A Data for Progress poll fielded July 28-Aug. 4 had her up 53-47 in its final round. A New York Times/Siena College poll in June was the exception, with Sullivan up 47-45.

Iowa: Silver's average has Republican Ashley Hinson up 1.3 over Democrat Josh Turek. Emerson College and Nexstar Media, polling 750 likely voters Aug. 31-Sept. 1, gave Hinson a 5-point lead, 50-45 — her best showing in months. Suffolk University had her up 4 in late August.

Margins of error were not published with most of these surveys in the source reporting; where one was reported, it is listed.