Talarico Edges Paxton as Texas Senate Race Tightens
Talarico Edges Paxton as Texas Senate Race Tightens
The News
Democrat James Talarico has taken a narrow lead over Republican Ken Paxton in the Texas Senate race, according to a new poll shared with the New York Post — 44% to 43.4% among likely voters, a margin of 0.6 points. When respondents who lean toward a candidate are counted, the race splits 50-50.
That is a statistical tie in a state where Democrats have not won a U.S. Senate race since 1988.
The number has set off an open fight inside the Texas GOP over who is responsible for the party's scandal-scarred nominee being in a dogfight at all.
Timeline
Paxton, the state attorney general, beats Sen. John Cornyn in what CNN described as one of the costliest and ugliest Republican nominating contests in recent history. Paxton carried President Trump's endorsement.
On Fox News' "The Ingraham Angle," Sen. Ted Cruz tells Republicans attacking Paxton to "stop your b*tching" and get behind the nominee.
Cruz calls the race "effectively tied," saying Talarico "had a cakewalk of a primary" while Paxton absorbed roughly $200 million in attack ads.
Talarico releases an ad hitting Paxton over debates. Talarico has challenged him to three debates in the weeks before the general election; Paxton has not agreed to any.
A separate Overton Insights poll shows Gov. Greg Abbott leading Democrat Gina Hinojosa by a single point — the third poll in five weeks putting that race inside a point.
Reactions
Cruz has been the loudest voice telling Republicans to fall in line, while also warning publicly that he is "really worried" about a list of Senate seats Democrats could take in November. Democratic control of Congress, he argued, would stall Trump's agenda and bring "relentless investigations."
Rep. Troy Nehls, a Texas Republican, accused Cornyn of quietly rooting for the man who beat him to lose in November so Cornyn can say he was right all along. Cornyn has called Paxton "lazy."
Senate Majority Leader John Thune has called on Trump to steer money from his super PAC into Texas. As of Sept. 2, Trump's operation had signaled that spending is coming but had not reserved airtime in the state.
MSNBC framed it as Trump making a mess by backing Paxton and Republicans now asking him to clean it up. The Center Square, reporting the same numbers from the right, called both the Senate and governor's races statistically tied.
What's Next
Watch whether Trump's super PAC actually books Texas airtime, and how much. Watch whether Paxton agrees to debate Talarico. And watch whether Cornyn — beaten and openly contemptuous — campaigns for the nominee before Election Day.
Democrats need to flip four Republican-held seats to take the Senate majority. Both the Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball rate Texas a tossup.
More
The gap Paxton has to close is with his own side: he trails Talarico's support among Democrats by roughly 36 points among Republican voters, according to the polling cited in the coverage. A Republican nominee bleeding that much of his own base in Texas is the whole story of this race.
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