Three Insurgents Challenge Florida Democrats in Tuesday Primary
Three Insurgents Challenge Florida Democrats in Tuesday Primary

The News
Three insurgent Democrats are on the ballot in Florida's August 18 primary, each running against a better-funded establishment candidate, in a fight over what the party's left calls the weaponization of "electability."
Oliver Larkin is challenging Rep. Jared Moskowitz in the 25th Congressional District. Elijah Manley is one of several candidates running against Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz in the redrawn 20th District. State Rep. Angie Nixon is running for the Democratic nomination in the special U.S. Senate election against retired Army Lt. Col. Alexander Vindman.
Newsweek reported the contests as a Democratic civil war landing in the state President Trump now calls home. The Hill framed Tuesday's vote as the Democratic Socialists of America's last stand after a summer of primary wins.
The Money and the Odds
The numbers favor the incumbents and the establishment picks. Prediction markets give Moskowitz roughly 88 to 90 percent odds of winning his nomination, with Larkin in the low double digits, and price Wasserman Schultz around 91 percent, Newsweek reported. On Polymarket, Vindman has traded near 94 percent in the Senate primary, with Nixon at 6 percent.
Vindman has reported raising $16.7 million. Nixon has raised just over $625,000 and had about $118,000 cash on hand at the end of June. Larkin said he has been outspent by $650,000 from two super PACs, and cited roughly 40,000 doors knocked and more than a quarter million voter contact attempts.
Timeline
An EMC Research survey commissioned by the Wasserman Schultz campaign found her taking 52 percent of likely primary voters in a field of eight, according to Newsweek.
The Florida House Rules and Ethics Committee reprimanded Nixon after she used a megaphone during a protest that disrupted a vote on the state's new congressional maps.
A Listener Group poll found Wasserman Schultz at 39 percent on an initial ballot with Manley at 21 percent — then showed Manley moving from an 18-point deficit to a 9-point lead once voters heard biographical information about the candidates. The same poll found Manley beating Wasserman Schultz 63 percent to 37 percent head-to-head.
A Change Research poll conducted for Freedom Project USA, a group aligned with Vindman, found Vindman leading Nixon 39 percent to 24 percent, with 36 percent undecided.
A University of North Florida survey of 848 likely midterm voters found Republican Sen. Ashley Moody leading Nixon 50 percent to 42 percent, and leading Vindman by a wider margin, 50 percent to 40 percent.
Democratic socialist Francesca Hong narrowly lost Wisconsin's gubernatorial primary to David Crowley, breaking the left's streak.
Michigan Rep. Rashida Tlaib, a DSA member, was scheduled to appear at a Fort Lauderdale rally called "Chomp the Oligarchy" backing all three candidates, hosted by Miami DSA, Broward County DSA, Gen Z for Change and the Florida Youth Justice Coalition. The original venue canceled after local Democrats objected, and organizers moved the event.
Florida's primary.
Reactions
Larkin, who openly identifies as a democratic socialist, told Newsweek the party's standard collapsed in 2024. "The electability argument, the how electable a candidate is being directly tied in with how many corporate PAC donations or how moderate they are on issues, I think that's just gone completely out the window after the 2024 election, losing a second nationwide election to Donald Trump," he said, adding: "Kamala Harris lost every single swing state in the country in 2024." He summed up his pitch as arithmetic: "Electoralism is a game of addition, not subtraction."
Manley, who calls himself a progressive and economic populist, said the standard is applied selectively. "People tend to use the word electability and viability against candidates of color the most," he said. "And against women, against candidates of color, Black candidates specifically." He rejected the case for moderation: "Why would I vote for a Republican light when I could just have the Republican?"
Nixon said she is not worried about appealing to Florida's independent and no-party-affiliation voters. "We are not going to leave any stone unturned at all," she told Jacksonville Today. "This campaign is not about politics as usual. It's about returning the power back into the hands of the people." She is endorsed by Tlaib, Rep. Ilhan Omar, the Service Employees International Union and the Working Families Party.
Vindman, in a statement to Newsweek, said: "The choice is clear: if you want an outsider who is ready to disrupt the status quo, I'm your guy." His campaign said it has attracted 235,000 unique donors with an average contribution under $40, that 98 percent of donations were under $200, and that he takes no corporate PAC money. He is running on a "Florida First Agenda" that includes lowering homeowners' insurance, gas and housing costs and banning congressional stock trading.
Republican Rep. Randy Fine criticized Tlaib's visit, telling Fox News Digital it was "no coincidence" that Tlaib, the only Palestinian American currently serving in Congress, was campaigning against two of the chamber's remaining Jewish Democrats.
White House spokeswoman Allison Schuster said in a previous statement to Newsweek that "the Democrats' full-blown embrace of socialism and communism is a mortal threat to American liberty," adding that "President Trump will never allow America to become a socialist or communist country."
What's Next
Polls close Tuesday. The Senate result sets up the November general election against Moody, who led both Democrats in the July University of North Florida survey. Wins by any of the three would extend a streak that has already unseated sitting House Democrats this cycle; losses across the board would hand the establishment the argument it has been making since Wisconsin.
More
DSA-endorsed candidates have unseated three sitting House Democrats this cycle, in New York, Colorado and Michigan. Melat Kiros defeated Colorado Rep. Diana DeGette, first elected in 1997, and Donavan McKinney defeated Michigan Rep. Shri Thanedar. In New York, Claire Valdez and Darializa Avila Chevalier won their primaries, and Chris Rabb won an open seat in the Philadelphia area. Abdul El-Sayed, a progressive who does not identify as a democratic socialist, defeated Michigan Rep. Haley Stevens for the Democratic Senate nomination.
Florida is harder ground. The state is home to roughly 1.9 million Cuban Americans, at least 900,000 of them in Miami-Dade County, along with large Venezuelan and Nicaraguan populations. A 2021 Equis Research report found four in 10 Latino voters in 2020 were concerned that Democrats were embracing socialism — including 30 percent of those who voted for Joe Biden.
Manley disputed the idea that Hong's loss settles anything: "She barely lost. She lost by like 2,000, 3,000 votes out of hundreds of thousands cast. That's not a movement they can just throw to the side."
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