Trump Envoy: Israel Strike Nearly Sparked Turkey Clash
Trump Envoy: Israel Strike Nearly Sparked Turkey Clash
The News
President Donald Trump's special envoy to Syria, Tom Barrack, warned Israel over its strike this week on the Abu al-Duhur airbase in Syria near the Turkish border, saying the operation nearly triggered a direct military confrontation between Israel and Turkey — two of Washington's closest allies in the region.
Speaking Saturday in an interview with Mario Nawfal on X, Barrack said one theory is that "the Israelis were baiting the Turks," and that the strike may have been a "very aggressive but maybe a well-received pre-election concept" ahead of Israel's elections. He stressed this was only one possible theory, not an intelligence-based conclusion.
Barrack, who serves as both US Special Envoy to Syria and US Ambassador to Turkey, invoked Turkey's downing of a Russian fighter jet more than a decade ago as the kind of escalation Washington is trying to avoid, Bloomberg reported.
Timeline
Israel raised a concern with the United States, telling Washington, in Barrack's account, "We have some intelligence that there might be Turkish movement into this site, which we would be very concerned about." Barrack said the US reviewed the intelligence with relevant officials and got a clear response: "No, that's not happening."
The issue was examined through diplomatic channels, including a backchannel conversation lasting about two hours between Syrian Foreign Minister Asaad al-Shaibani and the head of the Mossad, according to Barrack.
Israeli Air Force aircraft struck the runways of the long-shuttered Abu al-Duhur base without Turkey receiving advance warning.
Barrack lays out the near-miss publicly, saying Ankara began considering scrambling its own fighter jets.
Reactions
Barrack described unannounced jets operating near a border as a "very dangerous game." He said the Turkish military is strong, well-equipped and has significant intelligence capabilities: "When they see these jets coming towards the border, and they don't know what the purpose, direction, or intent is, they start to say 'we're going to have to scramble our own.'"
Asked whether the incident could have escalated into "World War III," Barrack said almost any unintended incident could lead to broader escalation, but that in his assessment neither side intends to get there. "Thank goodness, palm heads really came to the moment of the day, and we unwrapped it," he said, adding that it was one of those moments when "for many of us, our whole life went in front of us," leading to the conclusion: "There's got to be a better way, guys."
On Ankara's posture, Barrack said: "I know that the Turks, their intelligence agency, their hierarchy, their foreign minister, the president, the head of intelligence, all are concentrating on restraint." He added they are "not predatory" and "not interested in attacking or even engaging in any kind of kinetic or adversarial relationship with Israel."
What's Next
Barrack tied both governments' rhetoric to their politics. He said Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is "moving toward October" and "knows what his constituency wants," while Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is approaching a decision on whether to call early elections and must weigh voters who are especially sensitive to developments in Gaza.
Barrack said both sides are looking for a way to de-escalate, but that from Turkey's perspective the Palestinian issue matters even more than Iran.
More
Behind the immediate crisis is a broader struggle over the future of Syria after the fall of the Assad regime, Barrack said. Israel wants Syria kept free of military systems that would limit its freedom of action against Iran — Barrack has previously described Syrian territory as giving Israel "a clear line of sight to Iran" — while Turkey is expanding its military and political position in the new Syria.
Barrack said Trump recently asked Erdogan why Turkey did not simply "take" Syria, given the role it played there. Erdogan's answer, per Barrack: "Because we don't want it. We want Syria to be a sovereign and independent country."
Even through the crisis, Barrack said, the three governments still work together nightly: "Every evening... we have coordination between Turkey, Israel, and Syria, hunting ISIS terrorists," which he said is trying to exploit the governing vacuum in Syria to rebuild. He also noted that maps circulate in Turkey depicting an alleged "Greater Israel" while maps in Israel warn of "Ottoman Empire 2.0" — "We don't think any of those things are true," he said.
Turkey is a NATO member and, as Barrack put it, one of the United States' most important allies in the region.
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