US, Allies Draft Iran Referral to Security Council
US, Allies Draft Iran Referral to Security Council
The News
The United States, Britain, France and Germany have drafted a resolution that would have the UN nuclear watchdog report Iran to the UN Security Council for failing to comply with its nonproliferation obligations, diplomats told Reuters and The Associated Press on Friday.
The mechanism is a referral. The draft asks IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi "to transmit this resolution and the previously adopted resolutions … to all Members of the Agency and to the Security Council and the General Assembly of the United Nations, in accordance with the relevant provisions of the IAEA Statute."
That hands the file to a body that can impose legally binding measures, including sanctions or asset freezes. In practice, punitive UN action is unlikely: Iran's allies Russia and China hold vetoes on the Security Council.
The text has not been formally submitted and is still under negotiation, diplomats said. Once it is, it goes to a vote at next week's IAEA Board of Governors meeting in Vienna.
Timeline
The IAEA Board of Governors adopts a resolution declaring Iran in breach of its nonproliferation obligations for not fully cooperating with an investigation into uranium traces found at undeclared sites — the first such finding in 20 years.
Israel begins bombing Iranian nuclear sites, soon joined by the United States, in what became a 12-day war.
Iran stops giving IAEA inspectors access to the nuclear sites hit in the strikes, despite its legal obligation to cooperate under the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty. The agency loses the ability to verify Iran's stockpile of near weapons-grade uranium.
The United States and Israel launch a new war against Iran, according to The Associated Press. Both Washington and Tehran carried out strikes again this week.
In a confidential report seen by the AP, the IAEA warns that Iran's continued refusal to allow access and verification is a "proliferation risk" that must be "addressed with the utmost urgency." The report also finds no progress in the long-running investigation into uranium traces at undeclared sites.
Reuters first reports the draft resolution; the AP obtains the text.
Reactions
A senior Western diplomat, who was not authorized to speak publicly and spoke on condition of anonymity, said the referral had been stalled to allow a final push for diplomacy, but that the board now has to follow its mandate and act — because Iran has not cooperated and even communication is no longer happening.
The draft itself keeps the door open. It "stresses its support for a diplomatic solution to the challenges posed by the Iranian nuclear programme and its implications for regional peace and stability leading to an agreement that addresses all international concerns related to Iran's nuclear activities, and encourages all parties to constructively engage in diplomacy."
Iran says it is not pursuing nuclear weapons and that its program is entirely peaceful.
What's Next
Board members can still propose amendments, so the text may change before it is formally tabled. The vote is expected at the Board of Governors meeting in Vienna next week.
If it passes, the file moves to the Security Council — where Russian and Chinese vetoes make binding punishment a long shot.
More
The Stockpile
The IAEA says Iran holds 440.9 kilograms — 972 pounds — of uranium enriched up to 60% purity, a short technical step from the 90% considered weapons-grade.
Grossi warned in an interview with the AP last year that a stockpile that size could allow Iran to build as many as 10 nuclear bombs if it decided to weaponize. He said that does not mean Iran has a weapon.
What the Obligations Are
Under the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, Iran is legally bound to declare all nuclear material and activities and to let Vienna-based IAEA inspectors verify that none of it is being diverted from peaceful uses.
Poll
Should the IAEA board refer Iran to the Security Council?
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