US Navy Pries Hormuz Open; Oil Flows Climb

US Navy Pries Hormuz Open; Oil Flows Climb

A naval warship sailing with accompanying vessels during a maritime patrol in the Strait of Hormuz.
U.S. Navy warships patrol the Strait of Hormuz as oil shipments climb under military protection.Illustration: The Frank

The News

Oil is moving through the Strait of Hormuz again at the fastest pace in months — under U.S. military protection — as Washington's war with Iran grinds into a new phase.

Just under 11 million barrels of oil a day are transiting the strait on a seven-day average, Energy Secretary Chris Wright told Bloomberg on Wednesday. That is up from the 9 million barrels a day he cited on CNN on Sunday, and well above the 6.1 million barrel daily average that shipping analytics firm Kpler recorded during the 60-day U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding that lapsed last month.

It is still short of the prewar average of about 15 million barrels a day in 2025, according to Kpler. Before the conflict began on Feb. 28, oil through the waterway accounted for roughly 20% of global consumption.

The Numbers

Since early May, the U.S. military has helped move approximately 1,600 vessels and more than 800 million barrels of crude through the strait, U.S. Central Command spokesman Capt. Tim Hawkins said Tuesday. Multiple routes through the strait remain free and open for transit, he said.

Crude has still climbed above $100 a barrel on fears of future supply disruption. On Friday, the average U.S. price of a gallon of unleaded gas was $4.30 — more than a dollar higher than a year ago, according to AAA.

Timeline

Feb. 28, 2026

The conflict begins. Before that date, oil moving through the Strait of Hormuz accounted for about 20% of global consumption, with transits averaging about 15 million barrels a day in 2025, per Kpler.

Early May 2026

U.S. forces begin assisting commercial traffic through the strait. CENTCOM says roughly 1,600 vessels and more than 800 million barrels of crude have been helped through since.

July 6, 2026

The start of the window counted by the U.K. Maritime Trade Operations Center, which logged 27 attacks on ships in the waterway from that date, most on a southern route near Oman.

August 2026

Twelve attacks on ships in the strait, per UKMTO. The 60-day U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding, during which transits averaged 6.1 million barrels a day, ends.

Sunday

Wright tells CNN transits are running at 9 million barrels a day.

Tuesday

CENTCOM's Hawkins gives the 1,600-vessel, 800 million-barrel figures.

Wednesday

Wright puts the seven-day average at just under 11 million barrels a day. CENTCOM says U.S. forces destroyed 10 Iranian tankers, sinking at least one, over the previous week in response to Iranian attempts to strike Navy ships. President Donald Trump says he expects Iran to capitulate to U.S. demands soon after the November midterm elections. The Wall Street Journal reports the same day that top White House advisers, including Vice President JD Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio, have discussed the possibility the conflict runs through the rest of Trump's term.

Thursday

Two vessels in the strait are struck by four unknown projectiles, setting a fire on one, according to UKMTO.

Friday

Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian arrives at the BRICS summit in New Delhi, where India's reliance on the strait for about 30% of its oil hangs over the meeting, The Washington Times reported. Tehran's allies in Yemen are threatening to widen attacks on Saudi Arabia, another summit attendee.

Reactions

"We continue to grow the oil and oil products coming out of the (Persian) Gulf," Wright said. "The American Navy is doing a phenomenal job there."

James Holmes, chair of the maritime strategy program at the Naval War College in Newport, R.I., said the aircraft carriers USS George Washington and USS George H.W. Bush enable a layered defense against Iranian missiles, speedboats and minelayers. "You don't really need a carrier to blockade Iranian tankers, but carrier aviation is highly useful for scouting and targeting enemy forces in the Strait of Hormuz," he said. He also warned of the cost: "There is a heavy price to keeping two flat-tops on station in one theater and running them that long."

Samir Madani, co-founder of TankerTrackers.com, said Navy ships are not directly escorting vessels through the strait. Arab national fleet and leased tankers are making the passage with their location transponders switched off, transferring cargo to ships waiting in the Gulf of Oman, he said on a podcast hosted by shipping expert Sal Mercogliano. U.S.-facilitated transits are irregular and not daily but are becoming more frequent, he added: "There's a lot more volume going during the days that those convoys do pass through."

Iran is not signaling retreat. IRGC spokesman Hossein Mohebbi said this week that "the imposed war, which involved the world's most powerful nations, has ended in certain periods, but the nature of the conflict continues," adding that for the first time the conflict has "directly inflicted strategic damage on the United States." An Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman said security in the Strait of Hormuz cannot be guaranteed while U.S. "aggression" and the naval blockade continue, Tehran Times reported.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, posting on X, congratulated Trump for keeping up the pressure and said the U.S. and Israel had achieved "historic progress" over the last year that left Iran and its allies "weaker than ever." "The people of Israel stand with the people of the United States and with President Trump in confronting the forces of terror," he said.

What's Next

Gulf foreign ministers plan to meet their Iranian counterpart on Monday in the Omani coastal city of Salalah to seek buy-in for a deal temporarily managing shipping through the strait, the Financial Times reported, with details still being finalized. It would be the first meeting between the top diplomats of the six-member Gulf Cooperation Council and a senior Iranian official since the U.S. and Israel launched the war in February. Tehran has set its own conditions for ending the fighting.

How long the U.S. keeps protecting shipping and enforcing its blockade of Iranian ports is unsettled. Trump says he expects Iran to fold shortly after the November midterms; his own advisers have discussed a war that lasts years. Holmes said American operations could continue indefinitely if logistics hold, but with opportunity costs — including engineering problems on ships worn down by long deployments.

More

Exactly how the U.S. is keeping the oil moving remains unclear. Officials have said only that forces are providing coordinated protection for tankers. Analysts say U.S. helicopters, fighter jets and surface drones are likely providing cover against Iranian drones and missiles as tankers move through in nighttime convoys.

Oil prices ripple through the whole economy — transportation, manufacturing and energy costs that consumers feel at the pump and the grocery store. That is why a half-open strait is a domestic story as much as a foreign one.

Poll

Should the U.S. Navy keep protecting oil tankers through the Strait of Hormuz?

Yes — keep the oil moving
0.0%
No — it is not America's fight
0.0%
Only if Gulf states pay for it
0.0%
Not sure
0.0%

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