Canada Trade Talks Collapse; 50% Tariffs Hit

Canada Trade Talks Collapse; 50% Tariffs Hit

The News

U.S.-Canada trade talks collapsed late Friday, and Washington answered on Saturday with a 50% tariff on about $20 billion of Canadian goods — dairy, wine, wood products, furniture, cement and ceramics among them.

Both capitals say the other side blew it up.

Canada's ambassador to the U.S., Mark Wiseman, says the written deal text kept contradicting what Ottawa thought it had agreed to. U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer says Canada came back for more in the final hours.

The Two Accounts

Wiseman, Prime Minister Mark Carney's top envoy in Washington, said in an interview Sunday that no single issue killed the deal. He likened it to a handshake agreement to buy a house — only to learn the appliances weren't included, the furnace had no warranty, and neither the garage nor the yard was on the property.

"As we drilled down, what we discovered was that what our understanding of what had been agreed to was quite different from what was showing up in the documents," he said. "When that kind of happens once or twice, it's kind of understandable, but when it happens consistently, and every interpretation is the most negative interpretation" it "got to a point" where Canada walked.

Greer told CNBC the talks had reached a point "where we had enough agreement among the parties to announce" a deal. "Then we set about to finalize it, and then in the last hours, I think there were things that the Canadians just — you know, they wanted more," he said.

Greer told the New York Times on Saturday what Canada turned down: the majority of Canadian steel exports cut to a 25% tariff up to a quota, with anything above that staying at 50%; aluminum cut to 25% with no quota; a lower tariff on passenger vehicles; the since-enacted tariffs suspended; and the lumber tariff eliminated. Asked to confirm that, Wiseman declined to get into details but called it "broadly accurate."

The sticking points, per the Canadian side: medium and heavy-duty vehicles, which the U.S. resisted including in tariff relief and which Wiseman said Canada "needed" in — an issue he said affects General Motors and Ford operations in Canada. Carney also said the U.S. demanded Canada constrain its ability to strike separate trade deals with other countries, and sought to curtail French-language content requirements on digital and streaming services. Wiseman called the French-language question "non-negotiable" and said the trade-deal issue "was not an issue about China."

Timeline

Friday

talks collapse late in the day after a U.S.-set deadline.

Saturday

the 50% U.S. tariff on roughly $20 billion in Canadian goods takes effect.

Sunday

Trump posts that Canada "wants the benefits of being a State, without being one." Wiseman gives his account of the breakdown.

Monday

the Canadian dollar is quoted as much as 0.5% weaker as currency markets reopen in Asia, erasing part of last week's 0.8% rally. Trump announces that on "January First, 2027, Tariffs on all Cars, Trucks, both large and small, Automotive Parts, and Steel, will be increased to 50%."

Sept. 8

Canada's retaliatory tariffs are set to take effect.

Reactions

Trump, announcing the auto and steel escalation: "Canada has been ripping off the United States of America for years. Their ridiculously high tariffs on our Farmers and farm products has made life impossible for these great American Patriots, and has long created a 60 Billion Dollar Deficit between our two Countries. Not sustainable, and NOT ANYMORE!"

Carney said Washington introduced last-minute demands he called "unfair, uneconomic, and called into question the reliability of any deal," and has kept repeating that the U.S. offer would not have benefited Canadians. He has promised "dollar for dollar" retaliation targeting steel, dairy, agricultural equipment, paper and electronics. He also said the U.S. side was not united, with different messages coming from Greer and Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick.

Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy said on Fox News that Canada is "foolish" to think it can win a trade war with the U.S.

Former Vice President Mike Pence broke with the White House on CNN's State of the Union: "American businesses and American consumers pay American tariffs."

Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre is calling on Carney to reconvene Parliament without delay over the failed deal. Ontario Premier Doug Ford has threatened to cut off exports of electricity and critical minerals if the fight deepens.

What's Next

It is not clear whether the two sides will talk again before Sept. 8. Wiseman said the gap should not be read as an overtime period for negotiations: "I don't think it should be viewed that way."

Markets are betting on a thaw anyway. "News over the weekend is certainly CAD negative and I think we will see plenty of volatility in the currency," said Nick Twidale, chief market analyst at AT Global Markets, "however, moves won't be too excessive as we've all seen this movie before over the last couple of years, so I'm expecting some sort of a deal or resumption of trade talks to be announced during the week."

If Canada proceeds on Sept. 8, the U.S. has pledged to escalate — and the Jan. 1, 2027 auto and steel increase is already on the board.

More

Earlier this year the Supreme Court struck down much of Trump's original tariff program, which he had imposed unilaterally under the 1977 International Emergency Economic Powers Act. The court said the president had not identified "clear congressional authorization," noting the law "contains no reference to tariffs or duties." The government had to refund tens of billions of dollars to companies.

Mexico's President Claudia Sheinbaum said she expects to reach a separate trade deal with the U.S. — a sign Washington may prefer one-on-one agreements to the North American pact.

Sourcing: National Post (Bloomberg News), IBTimes, CTV News.

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