Cook Report Moves Texas, Iowa Senate to Toss-Ups
Cook Report Moves Texas, Iowa Senate to Toss-Ups
The News
The nonpartisan Cook Political Report on Thursday moved the Senate races in Texas and Iowa from lean Republican to toss-up, putting two reliably red states in play five months from the midterms.
Both states backed Donald Trump by more than 13 points.
Cook also narrowed its ratings for the governor's races in both states, according to Axios.
Democrats need to flip at least four seats to take the Senate majority.
The Races
In Texas, Republican Ken Paxton faces Democrat James Talarico. Paxton survived an impeachment attempt and has not consolidated the party's financial backing behind him.
Texas has not elected a Democrat statewide in more than three decades. It is also the most expensive state on the competitive map, with 20 media markets to cover.
In Iowa, Democrat Josh Turek faces Republican Rep. Ashley Hinson for the seat being vacated by Sen. Joni Ernst. Tariffs and rising farm input costs have hit the state hard.
The RealClearPolitics polling average puts 0.7 percentage points between the two Iowa candidates.
Timeline
Cook Political Report publishes the ratings change, shifting both Senate races to toss-up and tightening its governor ratings in the two states.
Bloomberg, The Hill, Axios, Political Wire and Just the News all report the shift the same day.
Reactions
Cook framed the change as the start of the fall campaign, not a prediction of a Democratic Senate. "The battle for the Senate is about to intensify ahead of the traditional Labor Day starting gun," the report said, as quoted by Political Wire. "Republicans still retain a structural advantage given the partisan challenges of the map, and Democrats still need almost every key race to break their way."
Coverage split on emphasis. Center and center-left outlets played up Democratic opportunity and Republican vulnerability; right-leaning Just the News stressed that Cook's rankings are polling-and-research based and that Republicans keep the structural edge on the map.
What's Next
National Democrats have not yet put money into Texas, citing the cost of the state's 20 media markets. Whether they commit is the first test of how seriously the party takes Cook's shift.
On the Republican side, the open question is whether the establishment lines up behind Paxton in time.
Labor Day, the traditional start of the general election sprint, is the next marker.
More
Toss-up is Cook's most competitive rating — it means neither party is favored. Two seats moving into that column at once matters because the Senate map still favors Republicans overall, and Democrats need nearly every close race to break their way to get to four flips.
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