Democrats Lead 6 of 7 Senate Tossups
Democrats Lead 6 of 7 Senate Tossups
The News
Democrats are narrowly favored to flip control of the U.S. Senate with less than seven weeks left before the midterm elections, according to a RealClearPolitics analysis — but the chamber is still a tossup.
Democratic candidates lead in six of the seven Senate races rated tossups, Newsmax reported, citing RealClearPolitics polling averages. Republicans lead by less than a single percentage point in the seventh.
RealClearPolitics cautions that razor-thin margins and candidate flaws in Texas, Michigan and Maine loom large over the map.
The Numbers
In Ohio, a Bowling Green State University poll found Democrat Sherrod Brown leading the special Senate election by three percentage points, with 48% support among likely voters. Democrat Amy Acton also led the governor's race by three points. Even so, the poll found Ohio voters expect Republicans to win both contests.
Timeline
Newsmax reports that RealClearPolitics polling averages show Democrats ahead in six of the seven Senate tossup races, with the GOP holding a sub-1-point lead in the seventh.
CNBC reports that traders on the prediction markets Kalshi and Polymarket now give Democrats a slight edge to win the Senate, describing it as one of the party's best positions since the contracts opened.
RealClearPolitics publishes its assessment: Democrats are favored to take the Senate, but it's close, with candidate problems in Texas, Michigan and Maine a live risk.
A Bowling Green State University poll shows Brown and Acton each up three points in Ohio, while voters still expect Republicans to prevail.
Political Wire, citing the New York Times, reports President Trump's political operation is suddenly spending in Senate races and House districts that had looked safely red, including several in Texas.
Reactions
The clearest reaction is where the money is going. Political Wire, citing the New York Times, reports Trump's political operation is investing in "what once appeared to be bright-red Senate races and House districts," including seats in Texas that Republicans claimed to have safely gerrymandered only a year ago. The Times described the political environment as having deteriorated badly for the GOP with less than seven weeks to go.
Prediction-market traders are moving the same direction: CNBC reported that Kalshi and Polymarket bettors now see Democrats slightly favored to flip the chamber.
Not everyone is buying the polling at face value. Newsweek, in a perspective piece, argues readers should deflate the "expectations inflation" building around this year's polls.
And voters themselves are skeptical of their own surveys — the Bowling Green State University poll found Ohioans expecting Republicans to win the Senate and governor's races that Democrats currently lead.
What's Next
Election Day is less than seven weeks away, and control of the Senate runs through the seven tossup races — with Texas, Michigan and Maine flagged by RealClearPolitics as the seats most likely to decide it.
Ohio's special Senate election remains within the margin that either party can close. Watch whether Trump's political operation keeps pouring money into districts Republicans assumed were safe, and whether prediction markets hold or reverse their slight Democratic lean.
More
The Boston Globe has published an interactive tool letting readers test how outcomes in individual states change the path to Senate control.
Poll
Who will control the Senate after the midterms?
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