Democrats See Wider Senate Path as Backlash Grows
Democrats See Wider Senate Path as Backlash Grows
The News
Democrats now believe control of the U.S. Senate is genuinely in play — not just the House — as Republicans gather in Dallas this week for an unusual midterm convention.
Bloomberg reported Sunday that Democrats see expanding opportunities with voters "irate over the rising cost of living, the country mired in an unpopular war with Iran and President Donald Trump's job approval polling at a low point," drawing parallels to 2006, the wave election that swept Democrats into power amid backlash to the Iraq War.
The specific math, per the Associated Press: Democrats have a path if they hold seats in Georgia, Michigan and New Hampshire while winning Republican-held seats in places like Maine, Texas, Iowa or Ohio.
The Stakes
Bloomberg noted that Democratic victories would leave Trump open to a barrage of investigations, a potential impeachment trial, struggles to confirm judicial and cabinet nominees and tough budget negotiations.
Timeline
A Trump-orchestrated wave of partisan gerrymanders begins, according to New York Magazine. Texas, California and Florida are among the states that redraw congressional districts, the AP reported, shrinking the number of genuinely competitive races.
Trump's job approval stands at 37% in AP-NORC polling.
Just a third of U.S. adults approve of how Trump is handling the presidency, according to the AP-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research — down from June and well below the 42% who approved when he took office. Majorities also disapprove of his handling of the economy and immigration.
A court blocks a Trump-backed congressional map in Missouri; the state's Republican attorney general appeals, the AP reported.
RedState, on the right, argues in a column that Democrats descending on the GOP's "midterm Trump-A-Palooza" could still "blow it badly."
Bloomberg reports Democrats see a wider path to the Senate. Political Wire, the Guardian, the AP and New York Magazine all publish assessments of a volatile final stretch.
Senate Republicans hold their midterm convention in Dallas, with Trump taking the stage.
Reactions
Both parties agree on the central fact of the race. Asked to rank the top issues this year, Ari Fleischer, White House press secretary under President George W. Bush, told the AP: "No. 1, President Trump."
Rep. Suzan DelBene of Washington, chairwoman of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, put it this way: "People are feeling the pain from Trump." She said voters will elevate candidates who "want to stand up for the American people, the pain that's been inflicted by this administration and Republicans in Congress."
House Speaker Mike Johnson, a Louisiana Republican, was asked last week whether the frenzy of news will hurt his party's prospects. "Some of these things are out of our control," he told reporters.
Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear, who chairs the Democratic Governors Association, said he is "excited about the map and I am bullish that we are going to pick up several seats." Pressed on Republican efforts to tie his party to democratic socialists, Beshear answered: "The only person that I see engaged in socialism is Donald J. Trump, who is taking equity in private companies for the United States government."
Fleischer countered that Democrats snatched "defeat out of the jaws of victory" by elevating democratic socialist candidates in a handful of congressional primaries.
What's Next
Trump takes the stage at the Republican midterm convention in Dallas this week.
A bipartisan Senate effort to advance cryptocurrency regulation could move as soon as next week, the AP reported, with Democrats insisting on a tougher ethics provision. "We've watched this president enrich himself," said Sen. Angela Alsobrooks of Maryland, a key Democratic vote who says she won't back the bill without stronger language.
Mail ballots are already going out in states including North Carolina, home to a critical Senate race, even as Trump presses his effort to limit them.
Fox News reported that House Democrats are already planning an oversight blitz if they win the majority, with Rep. Robert Garcia outlining targets including the Trump family, Jeffrey Epstein and ICE.
More
The Forecasts
New York Magazine's Ed Kilgore laid out three scenarios, citing forecasters. Nate Silver's Silver Bulletin model gives Democrats a 52.8% chance of winning the Senate and a 52.4% chance of a sweep of both chambers, and puts a Republican sweep at 16%; Decision Desk HQ rates a GOP sweep higher, at 30%. A Democratic Senate paired with a Republican House is rated at 0.4% — the national breeze that flips the Senate would almost certainly flip the House too.
Why the Map Is Wider
Kilgore wrote that Republican Senate seats in unlikely places — Alaska, Iowa and Texas, and perhaps Kansas and Nebraska — have come into play. Republicans hold a three-seat Senate margin, plus Vice President JD Vance's tie-breaking vote, and a two-seat cushion in the House.
The History
Midterms are historically rough on the president's party. Democrats flipped 40 House seats in Trump's last midterm in 2018 and 31 seats in the final race of Bush's term in 2006, the AP noted. Republicans gained 63 seats in 2010 under President Barack Obama but flipped fewer than 10 in 2022 under President Joe Biden.
Beyond Washington
Democrats are pouring resources into governors' races in Georgia, Ohio, Iowa and Nevada, all held by Republicans. The Democratic Governors Association has spent $5 million backing Rob Sand in Iowa, which hasn't elected a Democratic governor in 20 years. Beshear conceded Arizona, where Gov. Katie Hobbs faces Republican Andy Biggs, will be a "tough race."
Trump's Wild Cards
The AP reported the president is sitting on more than $400 million that could shape the race, and that he took in $1.2 billion from his crypto businesses last year, according to a federal filing released this summer. Economic fallout from his tariffs on Canada may intensify as November nears.
Poll
Who wins the Senate in November?
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