Dolly's Remnants Take Aim at Florida
Dolly's Remnants Take Aim at Florida
The News
The remnants of Tropical Storm Dolly are running west across the Caribbean and could reach the southeastern Gulf and Florida later this week, the National Hurricane Center says.
The system no longer has a closed surface circulation, and forecasters say redevelopment is unlikely over the next two days. Conditions may turn somewhat more favorable by the middle of the week.
For now the practical threat to Florida is water, not wind: extra tropical moisture, higher rain chances and a raised rip current risk along the coast.
Timeline
Tropical Storm Dolly forms in the Atlantic, with forecasters warning it may not last long.
Dolly falls apart and is downgraded to a tropical wave heading for the Caribbean, according to the Tampa Bay Times.
The Hurricane Center reports the wave is still producing showers and thunderstorms just east of the northern Leeward Islands, moving west to west-northwest at about 25 mph. Formation odds are near zero through 48 hours and 10 percent through seven days in the outlook cited by News4JAX; Newsweek reported the seven-day odds later bumped to 20 percent.
The window forecasters are watching, when the leftovers could reach the southeastern Gulf and waters near Florida in a more favorable environment.
Reactions
"Tropical Storm Dolly fell apart on Friday. Now it might try to come back," digital meteorologist Ryan Hall wrote on X on Sunday, per Newsweek. "The Hurricane Center says Dolly's remnants could find more favorable conditions once they reach the Gulf around the middle of this week."
Meteorologist Matt Devitt urged readers not to panic at the model spread. "I know the lines can initially appear ominous, but we need to put things into perspective first," he wrote Sunday, in comments reported by Newsweek. "These are tracks for the leftovers of Dolly, which includes extra tropical moisture and additional rain chances for the area it heads toward. Florida still needs the rain! I still can't rule out tropical development, the NHC has slightly bumped up those odds to 20%."
News4JAX meteorologist Michelle McCormick wrote that the wave could have indirect impacts on northeast Florida regardless of whether it develops — enhanced lift, more tropical moisture, stronger storms and elevated rip current risk from long-period swells.
Newsweek noted that a cluster of spaghetti-model lines is not by itself evidence of a serious storm threat, especially for a system that has already lost its circulation.
What's Next
The wave is expected to keep dumping locally heavy rain and gusty winds on the Leeward Islands, the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico over the next couple of days before pushing farther west.
Forecasters will watch whether it survives dry air, wind shear and passage near the Caribbean islands. If it does, it could find better conditions near the Bahamas or off the Southeast U.S. coast late in the week — a scenario the sources describe as uncertain.
The next named storm of the season will be Edouard.
More
The Hurricane Center is also tracking a separate low, designated AL97, producing showers and thunderstorms roughly 100 to 125 miles south of southeastern Louisiana. Newsweek reported the NHC gave it a 30 percent chance of formation over both 48 hours and seven days; the earlier outlook cited by News4JAX had it at 10 percent and 20 percent.
That system is expected to drift west to west-northwest across the northern Gulf, and residents along the Louisiana and upper Texas coasts are being told to watch it. Even without a name, it could bring heavy rain, rough surf and gusty winds.
The Atlantic season is nearing its climatological peak on Sept. 10, with mid-August through mid-October historically the busiest stretch.
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