El-Sayed Opens 7-Point Lead in Michigan Senate Poll
El-Sayed Opens 7-Point Lead in Michigan Senate Poll
The News
Democratic Senate nominee Abdul El-Sayed leads Republican Mike Rogers by seven points in Michigan, according to a Susquehanna poll released Wednesday.
The survey puts El-Sayed at 46% and Rogers at 39% among likely voters.
It is a sharp break from other recent polling that showed the race essentially tied — or Rogers ahead.
The Numbers
Susquehanna surveyed 800 likely Michigan voters from Aug. 11 to Aug. 17, with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.46 points.
A Fox News poll taken Aug. 6-10 had Rogers up 51%-47%.
A TIPP poll from that same window had El-Sayed ahead 45%-42%.
The RealClearPolitics polling average, with the Susquehanna result included, gives El-Sayed an edge of 0.7 points — a race still inside the margin of error.
Timeline
Fox News polling shows Rogers leading 51%-47%. A TIPP survey over the same period shows El-Sayed up 45%-42%.
Susquehanna conducts its poll of 800 likely voters.
The Susquehanna result is released, showing El-Sayed at 46% and Rogers at 39%.
Reactions
CNN data analyst Harry Enten said El-Sayed's net favorability is 13 points underwater — worse than every other Democratic Senate candidate polled by Fox News this cycle.
TIPP found 44% of Michigan voters view El-Sayed unfavorably against 39% favorably.
The dispute among analysts is straightforward: whether the seven-point Susquehanna lead is real movement or an outlier in a contest most data still reads as a toss-up.
What's Next
Prediction markets Kalshi and Polymarket gave El-Sayed a 57%-60% chance of winning as of Wednesday.
President Trump has endorsed Rogers, and both campaigns are accelerating voter outreach with fewer than 100 days until Election Day.
More
The seat is open because Democrat Gary Peters is retiring. Both the Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball rate the race a toss-up.
The stakes are national: Democrats must net four seats to take control of the Senate, and Michigan is one of the few states where either party can plausibly win.
That is what makes a single seven-point poll worth arguing about — and why El-Sayed's underwater favorability numbers are the counterweight Republicans point to.
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