Experts Warn Trump Eyeing Election Emergency Declaration

Experts Warn Trump Eyeing Election Emergency Declaration

The News

Voting experts say President Trump's administration is laying the groundwork to declare a national emergency over November's midterm elections, after a summer of document releases and disputed claims about noncitizens on the voter rolls, The Guardian reported Sunday.

Asked directly this month by rightwing broadcaster Wayne Allyn Root whether he would "declare a national security emergency for elections," Trump did not rule it out.

"Let me just say, stranger things have happened, OK?" Trump told Real America's Voice. "I'll leave it at that."

No president has ever tried to invoke an emergency to assert control over voting. Experts told The Guardian such a declaration would not override the constitutional limits on executive power over election administration.

Timeline

July:

Trump used a primetime television address to claim US elections were vulnerable to foreign manipulation and to repeat his claim that the 2020 election, which he lost to Joe Biden, was stolen.

After the address:

A White House "Government Transparency Task Force" — drawing on the office of the director of national intelligence, the NSA, the CIA and the Department of Homeland Security — began posting declassified "election integrity" documents on the White House website. The first tranche covered voting machine vulnerabilities, foreign access to state voter registration data and foreign digital manipulation. Much of it was already public, and it included a US intelligence assessment finding no evidence Beijing altered the 2020 vote.

July 29:

Steve Bannon, Trump's former political strategist, predicted on his War Room podcast that Trump would declare a state of emergency on national security grounds to "protect" elections. "Take your No 2 pencil out," Bannon said. "It's coming. It's coming. Just block the last week of August out. It's coming."

July:

DHS released an analysis claiming 278,000 noncitizens are registered to vote in federal elections. It did not disclose its methodology or its confidence level. The tool it used to flag noncitizens on voter rolls is known to be inaccurate.

July 31:

DHS issued a public notice arguing that administrative errors in New Jersey showed the need for standardized federal oversight. New Jersey Governor Mikie Sherrill had announced that 6,600 noncitizens were registered to vote because of a software error; fewer than 400 of them voted. Trump and his allies seized on the figure.

Monday:

The task force released investigative files from a Chinese intelligence probe, disclosing that former Democratic Rep. Eric Swalwell told FBI agents he had "occasionally hooked up" with Christine Fang, a Chinese national allegedly running a political influence campaign.

Tuesday:

The Census Bureau released a brief claiming it identified 24,000 noncitizens who voted in the 2020 election, from a preliminary match of 128 million records. It did not reveal its methodology.

Reactions

The White House would not rule out an executive order declaring an elections emergency, declining to comment on hypotheticals.

"Extreme liberal Democrats are keeping Americans from having full confidence in their elections by refusing to vote for the Save America Act," White House spokeswoman Lauren Bis said. "The American people overwhelmingly support this commonsense legislation that ensures Americans, and Americans only, decide our elections. President Trump is absolutely right: we fix this now, or we lose our country."

Aria Branch, a partner at the Elias Law Group who led a lawsuit blocking Trump's earlier executive orders on election administration, said the administration is "trying to lay the groundwork to declare some sort of emergency to nationalize elections. I think the president is looking for any opportunity to do that."

Branch said she believes no legal basis exists. "Noncitizen voting in our elections is just not a widespread problem," she said. "All of the fear and narrative around that issue is just completely unfounded, and it's really just to stoke fear and lay the groundwork for future action."

David Becker, executive director of the Center for Election Innovation and Research, dismissed the Census Bureau brief. "This alleged analysis based on census data fails the laugh test," he said. "The administration does not provide a sufficient explanation of how it arrived at these numbers — and for good reason."

Ty Cobb, a former White House attorney turned Trump critic, told PBS after the July address that the speech "is intended to add the predicate that he needs to declare an emergency at or about the time of the elections." Cobb said ICE agents at polling places are "a virtual certainty" and questioned whether National Guard officers would be deployed as well.

Santiago Mayer, president of the gen Z voter group Voters of Tomorrow, said his organization is planning for any scenario. "We have spent a long time thinking and preparing for any eventuality and anything that he might attempt," he said. "I think our focus at the end of the day is to turn out enough voters where, no matter what he pulls, it won't succeed."

On the night of Trump's July address, Bannon texted CNN: "We need a National Security Emergency about the midterm elections immediately — this is a powerful predicate for that."

What's Next

The pace of the task force's declassified releases has been accelerating, and Bannon told his audience to watch the last week of August.

The legislative vehicle in play is the Save America Act, which would require states to submit voter rolls for federal inspection, effectively give DHS the power to de-register anyone it deems ineligible, sharply curtail mail-in voting and require documentary proof of citizenship to register plus a narrow set of photo IDs to vote.

Democrats in Congress have spent recent months wargaming responses to executive provocations, running scenarios including AI-generated disinformation videos and ICE agents dispatched to polling places. Progressive democracy groups have been preparing for something to happen before the election.

Trump has already lost roughly two dozen court cases over attempts to seize control of local election administration, according to AlterNet.

More

Tulsi Gabbard, Trump's former director of national intelligence, testified to Congress that she had been leading an investigation into claims of foreign interference in US elections. Her presence at an FBI raid in Fulton County, Georgia, raised questions earlier this year, and her team was involved in seizing and examining voting equipment in Puerto Rico.

Gabbard resigned on June 30. Trump named longtime ally Bill Pulte as acting replacement — a move criticized in both parties over Pulte's lack of intelligence experience — before Jay Clayton took the post permanently. Bannon has publicly pressed Clayton to keep the releases coming: "Every day we're going to be dogging him on, like, where's the next release on this."

Trump has repeatedly attacked mail-in voting, but reportedly voted by mail himself in this month's Florida Republican primary.

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