German Far Right Targets Berlin After Record Win

German Far Right Targets Berlin After Record Win

Crowd of protesters at the Brandenburg Gate in Berlin during a political demonstration.
Protesters gather at the Brandenburg Gate in Berlin as the far-right AfD targets the capital after its record 43.8% win in Saxony-Anhalt.Illustration: The Frank

The News

Germany's far-right Alternative for Germany is trying to convert its record state election win into a national breakthrough, with three more votes in the next two weeks.

The AfD won Saxony-Anhalt on Sept. 6 with 43.8% of the vote and 39 of 83 state parliament seats, according to the Jerusalem Post — short of a majority, but the strongest far-right result in a German state election since World War II.

Next come municipal elections Sunday in the western state of Lower Saxony, then state elections a week later in Berlin and in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania on the Baltic coast.

Writing in The American Prospect, Robert Kuttner argues the surge is driven less by immigration than by a German economy that is losing its manufacturing base to China — and that Washington is not helping.

Timeline

1990

Germany reunifies. The Kohl government's transitional trust, the Treuhandanstalt, privatizes more than 8,000 state companies within five years; about 60% are sold to private businesses and another 30% are liquidated, Kuttner writes. For much of the period that followed, unemployment in the east ran roughly double the western rate.

2021

The AfD takes 10.4% in Germany's federal election.

2025

The AfD takes 20.8% nationally, winning 152 seats in the 630-member Bundestag and becoming the second-largest parliamentary group and the official opposition.

Sept. 6, 2026

The AfD wins Saxony-Anhalt with 43.8% and 39 of 83 seats, the greatest far-right state election victory since 1945.

Sept. 7, 2026

Protesters gather at Berlin's Brandenburg Gate against the AfD the day after the win. The same day, national AfD co-chair Alice Weidel says at a press conference that she wants the party to win "at least 40% of the vote" in the next federal election, in 2029.

Sept. 13, 2026

Municipal elections in Lower Saxony, the AfD's first test in the west.

Polls do not show the next state elections matching Saxony-Anhalt, the Jerusalem Post reports. The AfD leads in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania with about 35%. In Berlin, long a stronghold of the left, the AfD, the center-right Christian Democratic Union and the left-wing Linke are all polling around 20%.

The Numbers

Reactions

"From previous elections, we know that the AfD is currently able to mobilize almost totally its own constituency and potential voters, while its democratic competitors have much more problems," said Gideon Botsch, head of the Emil Julius Gumbel Research Unit on Antisemitism and Right-Wing Extremism at Potsdam University, who told the Jewish Telegraphic Agency the AfD has regularly topped nationwide polls for the past year.

Roland Abold, managing director of the election research institute Infratest Dimap, called the Saxony-Anhalt result a "watershed moment" that heaps pressure on Chancellor Friedrich Merz, and said "calls for a change in political direction and a reassessment of cooperation with the AfD are likely to intensify."

Ulrich Siegmund, the AfD candidate who hopes to become Saxony-Anhalt's state premier, tied his fortunes to Weidel's: "As perhaps the next Minister-President of Saxony-Anhalt, I need a Federal Chancellor Alice Weidel here in Berlin, so that we can write here history side by side."

Daniel Schuster, who heads the Simon Wiesenthal Center's European office, said the coming votes will show "whether Saxony-Anhalt was an exceptionally strong eastern result or part of a broader national expansion of the AfD's electoral base."

Remko Leemhuis of the American Jewish Committee Berlin said a "very strong AfD result" short of entering government would still "raise serious concerns" for Jewish residents about the party's influence.

Kuttner, who calls the AfD neo-Nazi, is blunter about the cause: "Call me an economic determinist, but for the most part it's the economy, stupid."

What's Next

Lower Saxony votes Sunday. Roger Stöcker, a political scientist at Otto von Guericke University in Magdeburg, said the AfD is likely to perform more weakly in the west, where municipal races hinge on well-known local figures — but that winning "a town hall or a county administration here and there" would be "a strategically significant success."

Berlin and Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania vote the following week.

In Saxony-Anhalt, the AfD still needs coalition partners to govern. Its regional agenda includes teaching children less about Hitler, banning Pride flags in public buildings, and requiring artists and cultural organizations seeking state funding to sign a declaration that they will not "disparage Germany and its culture."

If the CDU takes further heavy defeats, Stöcker said, questions about Merz — described by the Jerusalem Post as the most unpopular chancellor in modern German history after 16 months in power — could escalate inside his own party.

More

State governments in Germany control domestic policing and parts of the judiciary. Stöcker said the AfD could use that power to "put pressure on minorities it dislikes," including immigrants, Muslims and Jews identified with Holocaust remembrance. Leemhuis said it could also steer policing and intelligence away from right-wing extremism in Saxony-Anhalt, which recorded the second-highest number of right-wing extremist crimes per capita of Germany's 16 states last year.

The American Angle

Kuttner points to a second German story from the same week that drew far less notice: IG Metall, the union representing Volkswagen workers, agreed to the company's request for 50,000 layoffs, in a cost-cutting deal that also cuts a further 50,000 positions by 2030 and closes four plants. He attributes VW's troubles to China's growing dominance of the global auto industry.

Germany's real per capita growth was just 8% between 2012 and 2025, Kuttner writes, and mainstream parties are being held responsible. He argues American leadership is needed to work with Europe on China's trade practices, but says President Trump — ahead of Chinese President Xi's visit next month — has paid more attention to the appearance of the White House than to strategic goals for the summit. Neither Trump nor the AfD, he writes, "has economic policies to get at the root of pocketbook grievances."

The Jerusalem Post notes the AfD is strongest in eastern Germany, where voters are poorer and have been hit hard by high energy prices worsened by the wars in Iran and Ukraine.

Poll

What is driving the AfD's rise?

The economy and lost jobs
0.0%
Immigration and public safety
0.0%
Both, equally
0.0%
Failure of the mainstream parties
0.0%

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