GOP Needs a 'Perfect Game' to Keep House

Republicans still have a path to keeping the House in November — but a narrow one, according to the election analysts quoted in a States Newsroom report published Aug. 28 and carried by outlets including the Ohio Capital Journal.

"I would say that Republicans have a path to holding the House, but they kind of have to pitch a perfect game at this point in the cycle," said Erin Covey, the editor covering US House races for the Cook Political Report with Amy Walter.

Election Day is Nov. 3.

The Seat Math, and Who Owns It

The GOP's current House majority is 218-212, per the House Press Gallery's party breakdown.

The Cook Political Report's House ratings list 21 races as toss-ups. Republicans are defending 16 of them.

That is the number doing the work in this story: the forecaster is Cook, the rating is toss-up, and the count is as of the report's Aug. 28 publication. Covey said the Republicans' mid-decade redistricting blitz — new pickup opportunities the party drew for itself in Texas, Florida, Missouri, North Carolina and other Southern states — is the main reason the GOP has a path at all.

She also flagged the limits of that map. "There's a lot of variance in that because the seats that were redistricted, many of them are still quite competitive, and so, there's a world in which Democrats hold on to them this cycle, for sure," she said.

The Case Against Republicans

Robert Speel, an associate professor of political science at Penn State Behrend, pointed to the president's numbers and the war in Iran. "Trump's popularity is down below 40% in pretty much every poll now, and even in the low 30s or high 20s in some polls, and the Iran war is not even popular with Republicans, which has led to higher gas prices and his tariffs have led to inflation," he said.

A Reuters/Ipsos poll released Aug. 24 put Trump's job approval at 33%, tying the lowest the pollster has measured since 2017. In the same survey, 31% approved of US military strikes against Iran. Among registered voters, 36% said Democrats had the better plan on cost of living, against 28% for Republicans.

Ryan Owens, a political science professor and director of the Institute for Governance and Civics at Florida State University, argued the GOP has a turnout problem of its own making: the party's coalition now leans less on college-educated and older voters, who vote most reliably in midterms.

"Without having Trump on the ballot, without having a presidential election that generates that kind of enthusiasm to turn out, Republicans have been doing worse and worse during midterms," Owens said.

The Republican Counter-Case

The National Republican Congressional Committee rejects the framing. "House Republicans are running on a more favorable map with historic fundraising, stronger candidates, and a commonsense agenda, while Democrats are saddled with a deeply unpopular agenda and radical socialist nominees hijacking the must-win districts they need to take the majority," said NRCC spokesman Mike Marinella.

The committee's numbers: a $13.7 million cash-on-hand advantage over the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee as of mid-July, and 23 Democrats running in districts Trump carried in 2024 — including 21 where he took more than 50% — according to an NRCC battleground memo from June.

Republican campaign strategist Daniel Scarpinato said Democrats have not closed the sale. "Republicans face some headwinds, but Democrats actually have to say, 'Here's what we're going to do differently,' and they haven't really been able to articulate that," he said. "It's really just been a pretty anti-Trump message, but they haven't told people, 'Here's what we're going to do.'" He said swing voters in focus groups are not "ecstatic about the Democratic Party."

Democrats say the map is not the point. "Democrats are going to flip the House majority in November because we have the better message, better candidates, and strong momentum on our side," DCCC spokeswoman Nebeyatt Betre said, accusing Republicans of "higher prices families hate, unpopular rigged maps voters hate, and devastating health care cuts everybody hates."