Houthis Seize Mokha, Choking Saudi Oil Exports
Houthis Seize Mokha, Choking Saudi Oil Exports
The News
Houthi rebels have seized the Yemeni port city of Mokha and a Red Sea island from Saudi-backed government forces over the last two days, tightening their ability to choke off Saudi shipping through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait.
The advance lands one day after Saudi Arabia shut down the pipeline carrying oil from its eastern fields to the Red Sea, blaming drone attacks that originated in Iraq, where Iran backs powerful militias.
With Iran still disrupting the Strait of Hormuz, the kingdom's two maritime outlets for crude are now both under threat — a scenario that has sent jitters through global markets.
The Numbers
Saudi oil exports to Asia have fallen from roughly 3.4 million barrels a day in June to just 128,000 in August, recovering to about 700,000 this month, according to figures compiled by the trade monitor Kpler.
Timeline
Hamas attacks Israel, triggering a chain of regional wars that sets back Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman's plan to turn the kingdom into a global business hub.
The United States and Israel attack Iran. Tehran answers with missile and drone strikes on Saudi Arabia and other Gulf states and effectively shuts the Strait of Hormuz, bottling up Gulf oil and gas exports.
Tensions reignite with the Houthis. The rebels declare a blockade of Saudi shipping and resume large-scale attacks for the first time in four years.
Saudi Arabia says it has shut the east-west pipeline to the Red Sea because of drone attacks originating in Iraq. Regional officials have told The Associated Press the Houthis helped Iraqi militias carry out the attacks.
Houthi forces take Mokha and a Red Sea island from Saudi-backed Yemeni government forces.
Reactions
Michael Ratney, a former U.S. ambassador to Saudi Arabia, called the developments "incredibly frustrating" for the kingdom. "Despite their antipathy for the Iranians, this is a war they had never asked for, they had great trepidation about. And once it started, all of their … worst-case scenarios started coming true," he said.
The Saudi government did not respond to a request for comment. A Saudi official, not authorized to brief media and speaking on condition of anonymity, said the kingdom would defend itself and work with partners, including the United States, to ensure freedom of navigation in the Red Sea.
President Donald Trump said Saturday that Iran "probably" was behind the pipeline attack. Asked about a recent call with the crown prince, he said: "He's a good friend of mine, and I can just say everything's going to work out fine and dandy."
Asked Thursday on Fox News' "The Ingraham Angle" about hawks urging more military pressure on Iran, Trump said: "Maybe I don't do that because of the election."
Neil Quilliam, a Middle East expert at Chatham House, said Riyadh is cornered. "Recent Houthi gains increase pressure on Riyadh to respond, but every available option carries significant costs and uncertain outcomes."
What's Next
The White House did not respond to a request for comment on whether it plans to intervene in Yemen. Ratney said his understanding is that "the White House is not enthusiastic about getting involved."
Saudi Arabia's options are all bad ones. Escalating militarily against the Houthis risks heavier attacks on Saudi energy infrastructure, said Sherwan Hindreen Ali, Middle East research manager at the conflict monitoring group ACLED: "The kingdom already faced this in the past, but Houthi weaponry is more sophisticated now than it was back then, and the Saudis likely have less interceptor missiles available as a result of the U.S.-Iran conflict."
A negotiated exit is no simpler. The Houthis want the Saudi-led blockade lifted — which would let them grow stronger over time — and Iran has little interest in calming the region without major U.S. concessions.
More
Saudi Arabia had avoided the worst of the Hormuz shutdown by piping crude across the Arabian Peninsula to the Red Sea, where it could move to Europe through Egypt's SUMED pipeline and the Suez Canal, or to Asia through the Bab el-Mandeb and on to the Indian Ocean. The Houthi advance and the pipeline closure squeeze both of those routes at once.
Riyadh has been here before. Saudi Arabia fought the Houthis from 2015 in a war that killed an estimated 150,000 people and at times pushed Yemen to the brink of famine before a 2022 ceasefire, with little progress on the ground for its allies.
U.S. guarantees have thinned. Trump did not respond in his first term when a 2019 attack claimed by the Houthis temporarily knocked out half of Saudi Arabia's oil supply. In February, the U.S. joined Israel in striking Iran without consulting its Gulf allies. American forces are now heavily deployed around the Strait of Hormuz, the fighting has strained the military and drawn down interceptor stocks, and another Yemen campaign could compound Republican problems in tight House and Senate races.
Poll
Should the U.S. military intervene to protect Saudi shipping in the Red Sea?
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