Hurricane Lowell Turns Toward Hawaii; Kauai Faces Flooding
Hurricane Lowell Turns Toward Hawaii; Kauai Faces Flooding

The News
Hurricane Lowell has made its long-awaited turn north and is set to scrape past Hawaii's western islands starting Monday, putting the entire state under a flood watch and Kauai under a tropical storm warning.
Lowell was a Category 3 storm with 125 mph winds, moving northwest at 6 mph early Sunday, according to the National Hurricane Center. It is forecast to weaken to near Category 2 strength at its closest approach.
The center is expected to pass within about 170 miles west of Kauai — and roughly 130 miles west of Niihau — from late Monday night through Tuesday morning, CNN reported, citing the hurricane center. The San Francisco Chronicle put the Kauai distance at about 150 miles, a gap that reflects forecast updates issued at different hours.
That offshore track keeps the worst winds over open water. It does not spare the islands from rain, surf or storm surge.
Timeline
Hawaii Gov. Josh Green declares a state of emergency for the entire state, freeing up state resources and activating Hawaii National Guard units. Green said six high-water vehicles are being deployed to Kauai.
The National Hurricane Center clocks Lowell as a Category 3 hurricane with 125 mph winds, crawling northwest at 6 mph. CNN reported the storm has fluctuated between categories as it goes through the normal cycling of a major hurricane.
Tropical storm watches are issued for Kauai and Niihau, and a high surf advisory is in effect for south-facing shores, where the National Weather Service in Honolulu said waves could reach 14 feet through Sunday afternoon.
The weather service has a tropical storm warning up for Kauai County and a flood watch in effect for all of the Hawaiian islands through Tuesday afternoon, the San Francisco Chronicle reported.
The heaviest rain window across the islands.
Large waves arrive around high tide, raising the risk of coastal flooding. Winds are expected to be strongest Monday afternoon through Tuesday morning.
Lowell's center makes its closest approach west of Kauai and Niihau.
The swell fades as the hurricane moves away, and the tornado threat "should decrease quickly early Tuesday morning," the weather service said.
CNN, citing the forecast, reported 4 to 6 inches of rain for Kauai, Niihau and the Big Island, with isolated totals up to 10 inches, and 2 to 4 inches for Oahu, Molokai, Lanai and Maui — up to 8 inches in mountainous areas. The San Francisco Chronicle reported the weather service forecasts up to 14 inches at the high elevations of Kauai.
Surf is forecast up to 22 feet on south-facing shores of Kauai on Monday evening and up to 18 feet on east-facing shores, with 16 feet on Oahu's south shores and 14 feet on its east shores. Storm surge could flood normally dry coastal areas with up to 3 feet of seawater on Kauai and up to a foot on Oahu.
The hurricane center puts the chance of sustained tropical storm-force winds of at least 39 mph on Kauai at 30% to 60%, and the chance of hurricane-force sustained winds of at least 74 mph at less than 5%.
The Numbers
Reactions
"Periods of heavy rain may produce significant flash flooding and mudslides, especially across Kauai County and portions of the Big Island," the National Weather Service said. It warned that evacuations and rescues are likely on Kauai.
Large waves hitting the south and east-facing shores of Oahu and Kauai "are expected to produce life-threatening surf and rip currents," the weather service said.
On tornadoes, forecasters said spinning thunderstorm clouds in the hurricane's feeder bands make for a "favorable" situation for waterspouts or tornadoes near Kauai on Monday. Tornadoes are not expected near Oahu, Maui or the Big Island.
Green's emergency proclamation covers the whole state, not just the islands in the storm's path.
What's Next
Rain runs heaviest from Sunday evening through Tuesday morning, with the flood watch for all islands running through Tuesday afternoon.
Kauai is the island to watch: it carries the tropical storm warning, the worst of the flooding risk, the highest surf and the only meaningful tornado threat.
A track farther east would have exposed more of the islands to damaging winds. Forecasters expect that scenario to be avoided, but any eastward shift would change the picture.
More
Lowell is the third storm in just over three weeks to take aim at Hawaii, CNN reported, as El Niño supercharges the Pacific hurricane season by warming ocean temperatures and weakening the upper-level winds that tear storms apart.
The setup resembles 1992's Hurricane Iniki, which came ashore on Kauai as a Category 4 and remains Hawaii's worst storm on record. The difference this time is distance — Lowell is forecast to stay far enough offshore to avoid a direct hit.
NOAA has forecast an above-average central Pacific season, with five to 13 cyclones expected.
Poll
Is Hawaii prepared for a third storm in three weeks?
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