Iran's Hard-Liners Consolidate Power, Vow to Crush Dissent
Iran's Hard-Liners Consolidate Power, Vow to Crush Dissent
The News
Six months into the war with the United States, Iran's leadership has hardened around a core of long-serving Revolutionary Guard generals and clerics who are preparing for a drawn-out confrontation with Washington and moving to stamp out unrest at home, the Associated Press reported Saturday from Dubai.
That is a long way from President Donald Trump's early hopes of toppling the Islamic Republic, and from his later claims that "regime change" had pushed more compromising officials to the front.
Iran's new leaders show little faith in any deal with Trump — they were attacked twice while holding talks — and may be bracing for another assault once the US restocks its interceptors, according to the AP.
Who Is Now in Charge
Supreme Leader Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei, 56, issued decrees on Aug. 11 and 12 formally setting Iran's senior leadership, including its top military posts. He took over after his father, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who led Iran for roughly 37 years, was killed in the bombing campaign the US and Israel launched on Feb. 28. Much of the highest echelon of the government was killed with him.
Mohsen Rezaei, 71, is the new secretary of the Supreme National Security Council. He commanded the Revolutionary Guard through the entire 1980-1988 war with Iraq and until 1997, and has run for president as a hard-line candidate several times since 2009.
Brig. Gen. Ahmad Vahidi, 68, was confirmed as head of the Revolutionary Guard, a post he had held on an acting basis since his predecessor was killed alongside the elder Khamenei. Gen. Ali Ozmaei was confirmed as acting commander of the Guard's naval forces and Gen. Ali Abdollahi as military chief of staff.
The most telling appointment, per the AP, was Hossein Taeb, a 63-year-old hard-line cleric, to lead the Basij — the Guard's volunteer street force. Taeb led the Basij when it helped crush the mass protests against hard-line President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's 2009 reelection, in which dozens were killed. He then ran the Guard's intelligence arm for nearly 13 years until he was removed in 2022, reportedly in a shake-up after Israeli espionage successes.
Sascha Bruchmann, an analyst with the International Institute for Strategic Studies' Middle East office in Bahrain, described the new inner circle as "a clique of older senior officers who've served together over the last decades," and said the emphasis appears to be on unity: "It looks like internal cohesion, as in hard core people are being pulled into the inner circle."
Timeline
The Basij, then led by Taeb, helps crush protests over Ahmadinejad's reelection. Dozens are killed.
Nationwide protests sweep Iran and are put down; thousands are killed, the AP reports.
The US and Israel launch a bombing campaign that kills Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and much of Iran's senior leadership.
A ceasefire is reached, then quickly collapses amid exchanges of strikes.
Mojtaba Khamenei issues decrees naming Rezaei, Vahidi, Taeb and the rest of the new command.
Rezaei threatens "seismic" retaliation and a halt to Gulf oil exports.
Rezaei tells Pakistani mediator Gen. Asim Munir the US must "change its attitude" on the ceasefire terms.
Reactions
"If (Trump) wants to do something, we will retaliate in a seismic manner," Rezaei said last weekend. In a post on X, he warned that "if the economic war continues, not a single drop of oil will be exported" from the Persian Gulf.
President Masoud Pezeshkian remains one of the most prominent voices for a negotiated end. "It would be better to bring the war to an end, since today we enjoy power and dignity and the entire world approved our victory, and the U.S. is hated," he said last week. He has defended the June ceasefire against hard-liners who say it gave away too much.
Tehran-based political analyst Ahmad Zeidabadi wrote in the newspaper Hammihan, which backs Pezeshkian, that there are "serious differences over the future path of the country," and that hard-liners resist normalization with the US because "their survival depends on the existence of conflict and hostility."
Homayoun Falakshahi, top oil analyst at the commerce information firm Kpler, wrote that the Rezaei and Vahidi appointments show "greater influence for officials associated with a tougher stance," while noting Iran may struggle to "escalate enough to restore deterrence without triggering retaliation that leaves it worse off."
What's Next
An American blockade remains in place and Trump is planning new sanctions, pressure that the AP reports is squeezing an already deteriorating Iranian economy. Tehran is demanding the release of billions in frozen assets called for under the June deal, plus formal authority over the Strait of Hormuz.
At home, the leadership is bracing for trouble. There has been no sign of new protests even as Iranians struggle to afford basic staples, but Taeb's appointment is read as an effort to head off unrest "before it even manifests," Bruchmann said. In the decree naming him, Khamenei ordered Taeb to deepen the Basij's presence in Iranian life, use new technologies and "promote the Basij across the world against Zionist-American arrogance" — language that suggests ties to Iran's proxies abroad.
More
Mojtaba Khamenei has not been seen in public, or in any video or audio, since the Israeli strikes that killed his father. He is believed to have been wounded. His absence may reflect the security around him — he is likely in Israel's sights — or the severity of those wounds.
The Basij runs a nationwide volunteer network embedded in streets, government offices and cultural centers to enforce loyalty to the theocracy. It expanded during the war, with hard-liners holding nightly rallies in Tehran and other cities. In a recent speech, Taeb argued US economic pressure was meant to divide Iran: "If the mosque becomes the center of the neighborhood, the nation will protect its unity, which will be a greater deterrent than any missile."
Reporting in this article is drawn from the Associated Press, which reported from Dubai, Cairo and Tehran, as carried by The Boston Globe and The Times of Israel.
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