Nepal Flood Missing Nears 1,500; Americans Listed

Nepal Flood Missing Nears 1,500; Americans Listed

The News

The Nepal-Tibet flood is far larger than it looked on Wednesday. Reuters' live file Thursday counts some 1,500 people still unaccounted for and more than 160 dead. The number of missing Americans has gone from three to at least 63.

And the cause has changed. The U.S. Geological Survey now says the seismic event first reported as an earthquake was not one — it was a glacier collapsing.

The toll, by source

The counts are moving fast and the outlets do not agree. Each figure below belongs to the organization named.

  • Reuters (live file, Thursday): more than 160 killed, some 1,500 still unaccounted for.
  • The Wall Street Journal: at least 180 confirmed dead, more than 1,400 missing across Nepal and China.
  • NPR: over 170 dead.
  • The Guardian and Al Jazeera: at least 160 dead — 157 bodies recovered in Nepal, per Nepal police, and three killed on the Tibet side.

Chinese state media reported three dead and 265 missing in Gyirong County in Tibet, according to the Guardian and Al Jazeera. Al Jazeera reports at least 65 people were being treated for injuries in local hospitals and in Kathmandu.

Officials on both sides of the border have warned the death toll will rise. Al Jazeera reports helicopters cannot land in some affected areas until the waters recede, and much of the region is without electricity.

The Americans

Reuters reported Thursday at 07:36 UTC that at least 63 U.S. citizens are missing, citing Nepal's tourism board. That is the highest figure The Frank has seen attributed to a named official source.

Earlier Thursday, the Guardian and Al Jazeera both reported 47 Americans among the missing, also attributed to Nepal's tourism board — the Guardian as part of a list of at least 403 tourists unaccounted for, 341 of them foreigners, per Nepal's tourism ministry.

The Frank reported Wednesday that three Americans were among 384 missing. Both halves of that have been overtaken. Readers should treat the American count as unsettled: it has been reported at three, then 47, then at least 63 inside 24 hours, and Nepali authorities are revising as bodies are recovered and as tourists check in.

Who else is missing

Reuters reports more than 700 foreigners are still listed as missing across Nepal and Tibet — revised down from an estimated 800 earlier in the day. Its latest list, attributed to Nepal's tourism board except where noted: India 177, the United States at least 63, Ukraine at least 54, Australia 34 (per Foreign Minister Penny Wong), Britain 33, Canada 25, Germany at least eight, and nine South Koreans working at a hydropower plant.

Al Jazeera reports Nepal's Prime Minister's Office put the missing at 484, including 391 foreign tourists and 93 Nepalis. Al Jazeera reports that many of the missing foreign nationals are pilgrims who had been traveling toward Mount Kailash in Tibet, a site sacred to Hindus, while others were trekking around Gosaikunda Lake in Rasuwa district during the Janai Purnima festival.

At least 28 Nepal police officials were missing, a police spokesperson told the Guardian.

"This event was initially reported as a magnitude 4.4 earthquake," the agency said in a statement quoted by the Guardian. "Additional analysis of nearby seismic stations, long period seismic waves, and satellite imagery led to the determination that the seismic event was instead a glacial collapse and debris flow, and that no earthquake had occurred."

The agency said the glacial collapse "caused subsequent catastrophic impacts downstream," and registered as a magnitude 5.2 seismic event.

The response

Nepalese soldiers and rescue teams have deployed with helicopters, drones and search dogs, Al Jazeera reports, though high water, damaged roads and mud have slowed access to the worst-hit areas. Tibet officials mobilised nearly 800 emergency workers and 150 vehicles, plus sniffer dogs and speed boats, according to Xinhua as reported by the Guardian. Chinese leader Xi Jinping ordered an "all-out" search-and-rescue effort.

India sent a rescue aircraft with about 10 tonnes of emergency supplies. The International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies released 1 million Swiss francs ($1.2 million) for the Nepal Red Cross Society and said entire villages and markets were "wiped out." The United Nations has deployed personnel in Nepal, and the European Union activated its Copernicus satellite mapping service. All per Al Jazeera and the Guardian.

Timeline

Wednesday

Not an earthquake

The USGS initially reported a magnitude 4.4 earthquake early Wednesday, about 66km (41 miles) north of Kathmandu. On Thursday it reversed that.

at about 8:40 a.m. local time Wednesday

What actually happened

Al Jazeera, reporting with Reuters, describes the sequence: at about 8:40 a.m. local time Wednesday, satellite imagery showed a substantial section of the lower end of a glacier broke away at roughly 5,200 metres (17,000 feet) and plunged about 1,200 metres (3,900 feet) to the valley floor, gathering rock and sediment as it fell.

Reactions

Al Jazeera reports the United States and Canada have said they are monitoring the situation as authorities try to account for their nationals.

Survivors

"It was a huge gush of mud coming straight towards us," Keshav Prasad Baral, 68, being treated at a small hospital, told the Guardian. "As it got closer, it kept rising higher and higher."

"When I saw it enter our home, I tried to grab my wife's hand and take her to the terrace. But she was swept away by the mud," he said. "Four or five hours later, a helicopter came to rescue me. My wife is still somewhere beneath the mud. She's gone."

Another survivor told Reuters he was saved by clinging to a mango tree as the house where he had been working disappeared.

What's Next

Experts warned that a lingering blockage upstream on the Nepal-China border river could produce a second flood, the Guardian reports.

More

That correction matters, because Nepali officials had initially pointed the other way. Nepalese Foreign Minister Shishir Khanal had said an earthquake likely triggered a landslide that blocked a river and sent water gushing downstream, the Guardian reports.

The resulting ice-rock avalanche struck the Lhende River in Tibet, about 20km (12 miles) northeast of the Nepal-China border crossing. Debris temporarily dammed the river, then the natural dam gave way.

The surge entered the Lhende Khola, which feeds the Bhote Koshi and then the Trishuli. Water levels in the Trishuli rose by as much as nine metres (27 feet) in 30 minutes, Al Jazeera reports. At least 19 bridges and about 40km (25 miles) of roads were washed away. Worst-hit was Nepal's Rasuwa district, immediately south of the Chinese border, including the settlements of Timure and Syapru Besi; flooding reached Nuwakot and Dhading districts downstream. In Tibet, mud and debris hit Gyirong Port in the Shigatse region.

Al Jazeera reports officials were caught off guard because it was not raining.

The climate question

Reuters reports that experts say climate change boosted the risk of the flood. Al Jazeera is more cautious on this specific event: scientists are still investigating what triggered the collapse, and it is too early to determine how much climate change contributed.

The backdrop is not in dispute. Al Jazeera reports glaciers across the Hindu Kush Himalaya range lost ice 65 percent faster between 2011 and 2020 than in the previous decade, and Nepal's glaciers have lost close to one-third of their ice volume in roughly three decades. Satellite observations showed unusually warm conditions around the affected glacier before the collapse, with snow cover diminished and more bare ice exposed. Researchers are investigating whether melting contributed to the instability; a direct link to this week's collapse has not been established.

All figures in this story are as reported as of Thursday morning and are being revised continually by Nepali and Chinese authorities. The Frank will update as the counts firm up.

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