Poll: Buttigieg Leads Vance, Rubio by 5
Poll: Buttigieg Leads Vance, Rubio by 5
The News
Former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg leads both Vice President JD Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio by 5 points in hypothetical 2028 presidential matchups, according to an Emerson College Polling national survey released Thursday.
Buttigieg takes 49% against each Republican, who both draw 44%.
The bigger finding for Republicans: Rubio runs ahead of Vance against every Democrat tested, and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez is the only Democrat in the poll who loses to both men.
The Numbers
Emerson tested the two leading Republicans against the five top-polling Democrats. Buttigieg is the only candidate who holds the same 5-point lead over both: 49%-44%, with 8% undecided against Vance and 7% undecided against Rubio.
Sen. Jon Ossoff of Georgia leads Vance by 5 points and Rubio by 3. Gov. Gavin Newsom of California leads Vance by 5 and Rubio by 2. In both matchups, Vance and Rubio sit at 44%.
Former Vice President Kamala Harris leads Vance by 4 points but trails Rubio by 5.
Ocasio-Cortez trails Rubio by 5 points and Vance by 2, according to Emerson's numbers as reported by the Washington Examiner.
The same survey found President Trump's job approval at 40%, with 56% disapproving, and Democrats leading the generic congressional ballot 51%-43%, with 6% undecided.
Timeline
Emerson College Polling surveys 1,000 likely voters nationwide, with a credibility interval of plus or minus 3 percentage points.
Emerson releases the poll. Raw Story, Mediaite, Newsweek, the Washington Examiner and RSBNetwork all cover it within hours.
Buttigieg is scheduled to headline a conference hosted by the South Carolina Democratic Party.
Reactions
Emerson executive director Spencer Kimball focused on Trump's steady standing. "President Trump's job approval has been relatively steady in the past several months, with about 2 in 5 likely voters approving of the President, driven by consistent ratings among Republicans, 86% of whom approve of the president," he said. Kimball noted that 66% of independents and 92% of Democrats disapprove, and that men now split 48%-48% while women disapprove by 30 points, 62% to 32%.
Coverage split along predictable lines. Left-leaning Raw Story called the result a "devastating setback" for Vance's presidential hopes. Right-leaning RSBNetwork framed the same poll as Vance and Rubio running ahead of "far-left" Democrats — a description that fits only the Ocasio-Cortez matchups in Emerson's data.
Neither Vance nor Rubio has declared a 2028 campaign, and Trump has not named a preferred successor.
What's Next
The midterm elections are in November, and the Washington Examiner reports that any Vance or Rubio announcement is expected to come after that vote.
Buttigieg, who has kept a run on the table, appears before South Carolina Democrats on Saturday — an early-primary state audience. Ossoff is on this year's ballot for reelection in Georgia. Newsom leaves the California governor's office in January 2027.
More
Emerson also asked voters where they stand on the Democratic Party's left flank: 23% said they consider themselves supporters of the Democratic Socialists of America, 60% said they do not and 17% were unsure. Among Democrats, 46% called themselves DSA supporters — 53% of Democrats under 50, versus 37% of those over 50.
On issues, 37% named the economy as their top concern, followed by threats to democracy at 16%, healthcare at 16% and immigration at 13%. Forty-nine percent oppose U.S. military action in Iran and 36% support it.
The survey was conducted by text-to-web with a probability-based voter panel and weighted by gender, education, race, age, party registration and region.
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