Poll: Stefanik Closes Gap with Hochul in NY Governor Race

Stefanik has been eyeing a run for New York governor for several months. Outsider speculation about her possible bid escalated when President Donald Trump revoked her nomination to be ambassador to the U.N. due to concerns about Republicans’ razor-thin House majority.

Stefanik’s E-PAC commissioned the poll, which surveyed 1,250 likely voters in the 2026 midterm elections. The poll results memo did not specify voters’ demographics or backgrounds.

Stefanik’s internal poll was starkly different from other recent polling on the hypothetical matchup. A Siena College poll from mid-September showed Hochul leading Stefanik by a 25-point margin.

Hochul, the first female governor of New York, was sworn in to office in 2021 when former Gov. Andrew Cuomo resigned over sexual harassment allegations, as she was in line of succession as Cuomo’s lieutenant governor. She won her first gubernatorial election in 2022, besting Republican candidate Lee Zeldin by approximately seven points in the general election.

Stefanik has been serving as the representative for New York’s 21st Congressional District since 2015. Her district encompasses a large portion of upstate New York. The next election for her seat is also in 2026.