Polls Missed Wisconsin Primary by 20 Points

Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley won Wisconsin's Democratic primary for governor on Tuesday after trailing by roughly 20 percentage points in the final public polls — the biggest polling miss of the 2026 primary season so far.

State Rep. Francesca Hong, a democratic socialist, was projected to win by about 20 points. She lost by less than one point, taking just over 39% of the vote after polls had put her in the mid-to-low 40s.

It was the second blown Midwestern primary in nine days. Prediction markets missed it too: Hong was priced at a 95% chance of winning on Kalshi as of Monday night.

Why the Polls Missed

Two explanations recur across the post-mortems.

First, the race changed after the polling stopped. Surveys taken a week out captured only a hint of a field that churned through late July, and the closing days brought a wave of coverage warning Democrats that nominating Hong would put the seat at risk.

"This also was, frankly, a crazy race, and there likely was a lot of change in the closing days," said Kyle Kondik, managing editor of Sabato's Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia. He said El-Sayed's win in Michigan — and the Democratic hand-wringing about his electability that followed — may itself have pushed Wisconsin voters toward Crowley. "Hong also expanded her national profile down the stretch of the campaign, and her media appearances did little to dispel the notion that she would have been a very risky nominee for Democrats," Kondik said.

Second, differential response. Kondik said white progressives — the power center of left-wing candidates — may be answering pollsters at a higher rate than other Democrats. Eagerness to talk to a pollster does not translate into extra votes: each of those voters still casts one ballot.

Wisconsin's open primary compounds the problem. The state has no party registration, so pollsters cannot tell who will actually turn out. Republicans and independents were free to vote in the Democratic race.