Seoul Investigates Whether Kim Jong Un Has Son
Seoul Investigates Whether Kim Jong Un Has Son
The News
South Korea's National Intelligence Service says it is trying to determine whether North Korean leader Kim Jong Un has a son — and that even if one exists, he is not in a position to inherit power.
In a statement Thursday, the NIS reaffirmed its earlier assessment that Kim's teenage daughter, reportedly named Kim Ju Ae and around 13, is likely in line to take over from her father.
The agency also said Kim has a younger child whose gender it has not confirmed.
The statement appeared to answer a recent media report that South Korean intelligence had concluded Kim has no son with his wife, Ri Sol Ju.
Timeline
North Korea is established. Every one of its three leaders since has been a male member of the Kim family: Kim Il Sung, Kim Jong Il and Kim Jong Un.
Kim Jong Un takes the reins of the North Korean government after his father's death.
Former NBA star Dennis Rodman recalls holding Kim Jong Un's baby daughter during a trip to Pyongyang. The reported name Kim Ju Ae is based on his account.
Kim's daughter begins accompanying him to high-profile events, including missile launches and large military parades. State media call her his "most beloved" or "respected" child and push out footage and photos of the pair.
A South Korean lawmaker says the NIS told a legislative committee that Kim Ju Ae had an older brother. The agency reportedly clarified that it was still trying to verify reports of a son.
The NIS says it is still attempting to verify whether the daughter has an elder brother, and that under current circumstances he could not be the heir even if he exists.
Reactions
The NIS did not elaborate Thursday on why it rates Kim Ju Ae's political standing as solid. It has previously pointed to a comprehensive analysis of her public activities and the state protocols afforded to her.
Some analysts doubt elderly North Korean officials would accept being commanded by a woman. They also note that if Kim Ju Ae marries a man from a different family and power passes to their child, the Kim dynasty effectively ends.
Other experts argue Kim Jong Un, 42, is simply too young to name an heir — a move that would dilute his absolute power.
Writing in the Washington Examiner on Sept. 9, Park Joonhye argued the outside world should stop obsessing over the daughter, contending Pyongyang is not preparing for a succession at all but consolidating power to secure a longer Kim Jong Un era.
What's Next
The NIS says its verification effort on a possible son is still open, and South Korean lawmakers have previously been briefed on the question in closed legislative sessions.
The clearest public signal will come from North Korean state media: whether Kim Ju Ae keeps appearing at weapons tests and military parades, and what titles and protocol she is given there.
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Why It Matters to Washington
Succession inside a nuclear-armed state is a live intelligence question for the United States and its allies. North Korea has no public line of succession, so foreign governments read family appearances at missile launches and parades as their best available evidence.
The son question carries weight because of what the sources describe as North Korea's deep-rooted patriarchy and male-dominated power structure — the reason outside analysts treat a male heir, if one exists, as a potential rival claim to Kim Ju Ae's standing.
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