Study: Climate Change Made El Niño 36% Stronger

El Niño events are 36% stronger than they were before the industrial era, according to a study published Thursday in the journal Science that reconstructed 1,000 years of Pacific temperatures from Galápagos coral fossils.

Roughly 16% of that strengthening has happened in just the last 40 years, the researchers found.

The finding lands while a "super" El Niño is building in the Pacific. NOAA's Climate Prediction Center puts the odds at 69% that the current event becomes the strongest on record going back to 1950.

What the Study Found

Lead author Julia Cole of the University of Michigan and her team used coral — ancient and living — as a natural archive, because coral skeletons lock in a record of ocean temperature as they grow. That let the researchers compare modern El Niño swings against a millennium of natural variability.

Their conclusion: the recent intensification is outside what the prior 1,000 years show, and human-caused warming from burning fossil fuels is driving it.

Cole said the health risks that follow include cholera and other diseases tied to disrupted water cycles.

How Strong This One Is

Columbia University's tracker puts the current El Niño reading at 2.7 degrees Celsius above normal — past the 2-degree threshold that marks a "very strong" event.

Federal forecasts have shifted steadily toward a very strong El Niño persisting into 2027.

The Guardian reported that the event now brewing could push 50 million people into acute hunger before the end of next year through its effect on food production.

What It Means for the U.S.

Record ocean warmth combined with El Niño is expected to shape U.S. weather patterns over the coming months, according to experts cited by Newsweek, which also reported that warmer, wetter conditions may drive up hantavirus, West Nile virus and cyclospora infections in parts of the country.

On the West Coast, warmer water could carry the highly venomous yellow-bellied sea snake into Southern California waters, the New York Post reported. Rare sightings have occurred during past warming events.

Where Scientists Split

Not everyone accepts the coral reading. Outside scientists — including Michael Mann and John Bruno — question whether the Galápagos coral record captures a real change in El Niño intensity or mostly reflects localized greenhouse warming near the islands.

That disagreement is about the strength of the evidence, not about whether the planet is warming.