Trump Touts Venezuela Oil Deal; Experts Doubt It

Trump Touts Venezuela Oil Deal; Experts Doubt It

Politician gesturing confidently at a lectern while announcing an oil deal

The News

President Trump says the United States has struck a joint venture giving it a majority share of more than 65 billion barrels of Venezuela's proven heavy crude — what he called "THE BIGGEST OIL DEAL IN WORLD HISTORY."

He announced it Friday, Aug. 28, promising the oil would come "at no cost to taxpayers," push down gas prices and double America's oil reserves.

Three days later, the deal is mostly questions: who operates the fields, who puts up the money, how long the rights actually run, and whether the agreement is legal in Venezuela at all.

What The Deal Says

The administration says the U.S. government has entered a joint venture involving a private Venezuelan company, and that the United States would receive 55% of the oil produced — an estimated 65 billion barrels, according to The National Desk.

Trump said in his announcement that the U.S. government and a private business would receive 100-year rights covering roughly one-fifth of Venezuela's known reserves, Raw Story reported.

Venezuela's interim president, Delcy Rodríguez, has described a narrower arrangement: a 25-year deal covering 17 oilfields and targeting production of more than 1.5 million barrels per day, The Epoch Times reported. She says Venezuela keeps ownership and sovereignty over its oil and is bringing in outside capital, technology and operating expertise to rebuild an industry battered by sanctions.

Trump said Secretary of War Pete Hegseth and Secretary of State Marco Rubio negotiated the agreement with Rodríguez. Rubio called it a "huge win" for the American and Venezuelan people and said it would bring nearly $100 billion in private investment, thousands of high-paying jobs and a reconstruction of Venezuela's economy.

Timeline

January 2026

The United States seizes and arrests former Venezuelan president Nicolás Maduro. Delcy Rodríguez, who was not elected president, takes office as interim leader.

Friday, Aug. 28, 2026

Trump announces the agreement, calling it the biggest oil deal in world history and claiming roughly 65 billion barrels for the United States.

Monday, Aug. 31, 2026

Energy analysts in the U.S. and Canada publicly question the deal's financing, legality and timeline; a Slate analysis calls parts of it "sketchy."

Reactions

Francisco Rodríguez, a senior research fellow at the Center for Economic and Policy Research, told CNN the money doesn't add up. "If U.S. taxpayers are not going to pay, Venezuela doesn't have the money, where are those $100 billion coming out of?" he said. "That's really the big question here and until we have clarity in respect to that we don't know whether this is a viable plan or not."

He also warned the contracts could be torn up later: "There is a risk that these contracts will be deemed illegitimate by a future government and possibly invalidated." It is unclear whether the agreement followed Venezuela's required legal procedures, including approval from the National Assembly, The National Desk reported.

Slate's Ian Prasad Philbrick wrote Monday that Trump's initial announcement did not name the "private business" the U.S. will partner with, and that any relief at the pump would take years. Venezuela currently produces about 1 percent of daily global supply, he noted, and crude prices jumped after the U.S. and Iran resumed striking each other over the weekend — a far bigger factor in what Americans pay for gas.

Richard Masson, a former CEO of the Alberta Petroleum Marketing Commission, told The Epoch Times that Venezuela's output "declined down to just over a million barrels a day, and has a rickety industry that's desperate for investment and talent." He added: "Getting the billions of dollars and expertise and legal structure in place to enable that to happen is very, very difficult." He also said the role of Venezuela's state oil company, PDVSA, is unknown — "there's a lot of question marks about whether this deal hangs together."

Newsweek reported that experts believe the deal could cost Rubio support among Venezuelan and Cuban voters and damage his standing ahead of 2028.

What's Next

The administration has not publicly identified the private company that would operate on the ground, and the United States has no national oil company to run the fields itself.

Whether major oil firms sign on is an open question. Trump said the U.S. would take its share "at cost" — production expenses plus a set margin — a structure that caps upside and could make investors less willing to put money in, The National Desk reported.

Slate noted two more ways the deal could unravel: a future Democratic White House could walk away from it, and legal challenges could be filed inside Venezuela.

More

The ripples run past Caracas. Asia Times reported that the agreement threatens to cut Chinese refiners off from a favored source of discounted crude, tightening Beijing's energy squeeze.

In Canada, energy analysts told CTV News the deal is years away from affecting Alberta. Michael Binnion, CEO of Calgary-based Questerre Energy, told The Epoch Times that Canadians can no longer assume American dependence: "America just doesn't need us the way they used to need us, and Canada seems to be struggling to adapt to a changing reality." He noted U.S. Gulf Coast refineries were built partly to process Venezuela's heavy oil, putting those barrels in direct competition with Alberta's.

Canada now produces more than 4 million barrels per day of heavy crude, Masson said — roughly four times Venezuela's current output.

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