UN Warns 'Supersized' El Niño Reshapes Hurricane Season

The United Nations warned Thursday that this year's El Niño is "supersizing" into what could be the strongest event since at least 1950, and that it will keep distorting global weather until at least February 2027.

The World Meteorological Organization, the UN's weather agency, released new data showing sea surface temperatures in the key Pacific monitoring region have run well above 2C over average in recent weeks, with monthly readings forecast to approach 4C above average. Below the surface, the Pacific is in places more than 8C above average, the WMO said.

Americans are already living in the pattern. Two Category 4 hurricanes — Karina and Lowell — and Tropical Storm Marie were churning across the Pacific on Wednesday while the Atlantic sat without a single named storm, according to NOAA and Newsweek's reporting.

What It Means For The US

El Niño loads the Pacific and starves the Atlantic. It warms Pacific waters and lowers wind shear there, while raising shear across much of the tropical Atlantic, which tears developing storms apart.

"There are currently three systems in the Pacific, and zero in the Atlantic," NOAA meteorologist Erica Grow Cei told Newsweek. "El Niño tends to favor increased tropical activity in the Pacific basin and reduced tropical activity in the Atlantic, so the current activity aligns with expectations during El Niño."

The Atlantic season is running far behind schedule. Five named storms have formed and none has become a hurricane, WESH 2 reported, citing NOAA data. AccuWeather lead hurricane expert Alex DaSilva told Newsweek the basin's first hurricane normally forms around August 11: "We should have two hurricanes and one major hurricane by this point."

NOAA has stuck with its below-normal Atlantic forecast — a 75% chance of below-normal activity, seven to 13 named storms, two to six hurricanes and zero to two major hurricanes. The long-term averages are 14 named storms, seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes.

In the eastern Pacific, NOAA predicted an above-average 15 to 22 named storms. Thirteen have formed so far, including three hurricanes; Genevieve and Karina both hit Category 4, and Lowell reached its peak intensity in the central Pacific.

Hawaii is the American exposure. Lowell was expected to hold Category 4 strength and track 300 miles or more south of the islands from Wednesday through Friday. DaSilva said AccuWeather flagged Hawaii as a concern before the season started "due to the warm waters and of course El Niño," and that Pacific systems can also push heavy rain and coastal hazards into western Mexico and the southwestern United States.

El Niño years also typically bring wetter-than-normal weather to the southern US, raising flood chances, the WMO said.