US Finalizes Venezuela Oil Deal, Eyes Crude Swap

US Finalizes Venezuela Oil Deal, Eyes Crude Swap

The News

Energy Secretary Chris Wright flew to Caracas this week to finalize the Trump administration's oil agreement with Venezuela, and said the United States could swap Venezuelan heavy crude for American light crude to help refill the nation's emergency petroleum stockpile.

"We'll swap you a barrel of heavy crude for a barrel of light or medium United States crude," Wright told CNBC from Caracas on Wednesday.

The catch for drivers: Wright said the new Venezuelan flows would take 12 to 24 months to show up as lower gas prices — after November's midterm elections.

What Is In The Deal

Under the agreement, North American Blue Energy Partners received 100-year concessions covering 17 Venezuelan oil fields, Business Insider reported. The U.S. government took a 35% equity stake in the company's corporate parent, and the State Department gained the right to buy 20% of the oil from fields the company operates at the cost of production.

Wright said Washington will not run the wells. The U.S. government "will not be the operator" of the reserves, he told CNBC, describing the arrangement as a deal between the U.S. government and a Venezuelan company to develop the resource without displacing private operators.

He also said the swap concept works around a technical mismatch: some of Venezuela's key heavy grades are not suitable for the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. Venezuelan heavy crude would go to U.S. refiners — many of them built in the 1960s and 1970s around Venezuelan barrels — while lighter American crude obtained in the swap goes into the reserve. "It doesn't mean that exactly these barrels go in there," Wright said.

The Numbers

Venezuela is producing more than 1.2 million barrels a day now, Wright said. He predicted "well over a million and a half barrels a day by the first half of next year" and more than two million barrels a day by the end of the decade — a roughly 50% production increase within 12 to 18 months, a forecast he said he stands by.

"This is downward pressure on oil prices globally," Wright said.

Timeline

Sunday, Aug. 30:

President Donald Trump announced the agreement, which Breitbart News reported gives the U.S. control of more than 65 billion barrels of Venezuela's proven reserves. Acting President Delcy Rodríguez thanked Trump and Secretary of State Marco Rubio in a televised address, saying the deal would make Venezuela an energy "powerhouse." Trump also said he planned to "fill up" the U.S. strategic reserves with Venezuelan oil.

Tuesday night, Sept. 1:

Wright landed in Caracas for a one-day trip — his second visit to Venezuela this year, following the arrest of deposed socialist ruler Nicolás Maduro. He was met by Hydrocarbons Minister Paula Henao and U.S. Chargé d'Affaires John Barrett, according to the Venezuelan Foreign Ministry. "Just touched down in Venezuela," Wright wrote on social media. "President Trump's energy diplomacy is delivering results."

Wednesday, Sept. 2:

Wright oversaw the signing of a series of energy deals and met Rodríguez at the Miraflores Presidential Palace. He gave interviews to CNBC and Bloomberg laying out the terms.

Reactions

Asked whether Venezuelan barrels would compete with Canadian heavy crude, a major supply for U.S. refineries, Wright did not dodge. "Well, of course. All crude is competition with all other crude," he said, adding that more competition pushes prices down and that "if you have lower oil prices, you have faster demand growth."

Wright framed the trip as a reset with a country he said lost eight million people to emigration under 25 years of communist rule. "This is rejoining the partnership between the United States and the people of Venezuela," he told reporters. He called what is happening "an absolutely historic transformation of both Venezuela and the relations between Venezuela and the United States."

Critics say the transformation stops at the oil field. A USA Today opinion piece argued that what Trump cares about most in Venezuela and the Western Hemisphere "is not democracy and human rights, but power and control" — the U.S. gets the oil, Venezuelans do not get democracy.

The Washington Examiner noted Wright's own 12-to-24-month timeline for pump relief means help arrives too late to benefit Trump before the midterms, though it is shorter than many experts expected.

What's Next

Details of the finalized agreement remain thin, and questions about how the concessions, the equity stake and the discounted-oil option will actually work are unanswered. The Venezuelan newspaper El Nacional, citing an unnamed U.S. government official, reported that Chevron would sign a new contract covering the Orinoco Belt, where most of Venezuela's reserves sit.

Watch for the mechanics of any SPR swap, the pace of Venezuelan output against Wright's first-half-of-next-year target, and whether Canadian producers push back as Venezuelan heavy crude returns to the Gulf Coast.

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