US Navy Quietly Escorts Oil Through Hormuz

US Navy Quietly Escorts Oil Through Hormuz

The News

The operation

The U.S. military has quietly established a shipping corridor in and out of the Strait of Hormuz to move millions of barrels of oil a day, two U.S. officials told Axios. Under the operation, which Axios reports has been underway for the last several weeks, 15 to 20 tankers have entered and exited the strait through a southern channel along the coast of Oman. The officials told Axios that roughly 10 million barrels of oil a day are moving out of the strait and into world markets — about half the pre-war volume, according to the Jerusalem Post's account of the Axios report.

The New York Times reported the same operation Wednesday, under the headline "How the U.S. Navy Is Helping Get Oil Through the Strait of Hormuz." Axios called it a notable success even as the broader war remains at a stalemate.

What the Times found

The Times, per an account of its reporting published by Hot Air, says the U.S. military has played a crucial role since May in getting oil through the strait, stealthily shepherding tankers along routes close to Oman in the southern part of the passage. Central Command uses ships, helicopters and planes to intercept Iranian drones and missiles, the Times reported, and ship operators register planned transits with the U.S. military and report threats as they happen. Central Command says it has helped more than 1,000 ships transit the strait.

It has not been clean. At least 15 ships have been hit despite U.S. Navy protection, the Times reported, with three crew members killed and several more injured. Shipping analyst Michelle Wiese Bockmann of the maritime firm Windward told the Times, "It's one of the surprising successes... They have been extraordinarily effective in keeping that southern corridor operating, despite the attacks." She put volumes at roughly four million barrels a day exiting in June and about five million a day in July, against about 15 million a day before the war.

Those figures do not line up with the 10 million barrels a day the two officials described to Axios. The Frank is reporting both numbers as its sources reported them; neither has been independently confirmed, and the corridor itself is described by officials speaking anonymously, not on the record.

Trump is threatening the country the route runs past

At the same time, Trump has threatened to bomb Oman — the country whose coastline the corridor hugs. Fortune, carrying Associated Press reporting, says two regional officials said Trump made the threat because he is unhappy that Oman is close to a deal with Iran to manage ship traffic through the strait. The administration has told Oman it opposes parts of the yet-to-be-announced deal, including joint Iranian and Omani management of the exit route, and objects to Oman's agreement to collect voluntary fees from vessels, those officials said. The White House declined to comment further about Oman.

Reactions

Trump: "The Strait is open"

President Donald Trump told reporters Wednesday that "The Strait is open. A lot of boats are coming through," and added, "We are getting a lot of oil out," according to the Jerusalem Post. He said oil prices were falling again — "they were talking about $350 a barrel, but today it's $84-$85" — and predicted the waterway would matter less over time: "The Hormuz Strait is not going to be quite as important as it was in the past," he said, citing what he called record numbers of pipelines being built as alternatives.

Iran says the strait stays shut until Washington moves. "Until the United States fulfills its commitments under the agreement, including lifting the blockade, releasing frozen assets, lifting oil sanctions, ending threats and military operations on all fronts, and implementing the other conditions to which it committed, the Strait of Hormuz will not reopen," said Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf, Iran's parliamentary speaker, per the AP account in Fortune. Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi responded to a Trump social media post depicting the strait as U.S. territory by writing on X that "his delusion regarding the Strait of Hormuz will soon either be corrected, or we will correct this deluded man's delusions for him."

More

RealClearWorld published an analysis Wednesday headlined "Iran Has Lost Significant Control of the Strait of Hormuz." The Washington Times reported the same day that Iranian attacks are pushing Gulf nations toward work-arounds to the waterway, easing the supply crunch and cutting Tehran's leverage.

The other pressure

The escort mission is expensive and keeps ships and sailors in the region far longer than planned, the Times reported: the carrier Abraham Lincoln has been at sea since Nov. 21 without a port call and will need significant maintenance, with the Japan-based George Washington coming to relieve it. All of this runs alongside a Pentagon review of a possible U.S. force drawdown in the Gulf, which The Frank covered separately.

More

What is on the record: Trump says the strait is open and oil is getting out. What is not: the corridor itself, which two U.S. officials described to Axios anonymously and which the Times reported through analysts and Central Command. The numbers in circulation — 10 million barrels a day from the officials, about five million in July from analysts — differ by half. What both accounts agree on is the shape of it: a protected southern lane along Oman's coast, U.S. warships and aircraft shooting down what Iran fires, tankers still getting hit, and a president threatening to bomb the country the lane runs past.

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