Bond Market Rebuffs Bessent's Push for Lower Yields

Bond Market Rebuffs Bessent's Push for Lower Yields

The News

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is trying to force long-term borrowing costs down by doubling the government's buybacks of long-dated Treasury bonds — and the bond market has already shrugged it off.

The Treasury said Wednesday it would at least double the maximum size of its long-dated buyback operations, from $2 billion to at least $4 billion, offsetting the purchases by issuing more short-maturity debt, according to IBTimes.

Yields dipped, then snapped back. The New Yorker reported that the 30-year Treasury yield fell from 5.29% to 5.19% after the announcement before returning to 5.28% by the end of the week — essentially where it started.

Timeline

1992

A 29-year-old Bessent worked in the London office of George Soros's fund during the bet against the British pound that forced the U.K. out of the European Exchange Rate Mechanism, a trade The New Yorker reports netted about $1 billion.

Last November

Bessent said in a speech that his most important job is "to serve as the primary caretaker of the Treasury market," per The New Yorker.

April

At his Senate confirmation hearing, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh said Fed independence was "at its peak in the conduct of monetary policy," while suggesting other functions such as bank supervision were not necessarily entitled to the same autonomy, IBTimes reported.

July FOMC meeting

Minutes showed policymakers postponing major balance-sheet decisions while awaiting recommendations from a task force created by Warsh. Its conclusions are expected late this year or early next year.

Last week

Long-term yields hit their highest levels since 2007, according to The New Yorker.

Wednesday

Treasury announces the expanded buybacks. The 10-year yield initially falls, then reverses much of the move by Thursday.

Thursday

"We have a big toolkit, so we'll see," Bessent tells CNBC, per IBTimes.

Reactions

Bessent has argued the intervention signals that Treasury officials believe current yields do not reflect economic fundamentals, and told reporters yields would come back down as traders realize "we are focusing on fiscal consolidation" and restoring "equilibrium," The New Yorker reported.

Traders were not persuaded. Analysts at ING said Bessent's scheme amounts to "rearranging deck chairs on the Titanic," according to The New Yorker.

Rick Rieder, chief investment officer of global fixed income, told CNBC the real levers are elsewhere: "There's more firepower in terms of how you manage the yield curve sitting at the Federal Reserve."

Former Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester told CNBC that uncertainty about the new Fed chair is itself part of the problem. "I think part of what's happening is we don't have very much clarity yet on what Kevin Warsh's plans are," she said. "We don't even have clarity on their reaction function."

In Fortune, economists Steve Hanke and John Greenwood called the move "a pointless intervention," describing it as a new version of "Operation Twist" — buying long-term debt while selling short-term debt to flatten the yield curve. They wrote that with broad money growing at nearly double-digit rates in the first half of 2026, the effort will fail unless the Fed tightens monetary policy. The American Prospect ran its own verdict under the headline "Why Scott Bessent Can't Fix the Bond Market."

What's Next

Attention shifts to Warsh, who is scheduled to deliver a major speech this week at the Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium in Wyoming, The New Yorker reported.

The Fed has given no indication it intends to intervene in the bond market, IBTimes reported. Bessent said Thursday he expects the two institutions to keep talking: "I think that the Treasury and the Fed would work together if there was any change in the balance sheet, and we would adjust to any kind of runoff that they're doing." Neither agency would tell CNBC whether the two men have begun coordinating.

The Fed's own balance-sheet decision is pending. Warsh has advocated shrinking the roughly $6.7 trillion portfolio and shifting it toward shorter-term government debt — a move that could push long-term yields higher, the opposite of what Bessent wants.

More

The politics are not subtle. Interest rates on mortgages, car loans and other consumer credit track long-term bond yields, and The New Yorker reported that fixed rates on 30-year home loans have risen from about 6% at the start of this year to about 6.75%, with the midterms less than three months away.

The pressure on yields is bigger than Treasury's toolkit. Since the end of March, the 10-year Treasury yield has risen from 4.32% to 4.73% and the 30-year from 4.9% to 5.28%. Total public debt has risen by about $3.8 trillion since President Trump returned to office, the federal deficit for the first ten months of fiscal 2026 totaled $1.8 trillion, and the Congressional Budget Office estimates the full-year 2026 deficit at $2.1 trillion — a jump of $300 billion over last year. Long-term yields have also been climbing in Japan, Germany and the United Kingdom.

Warsh has separately proposed rewriting the 1951 Treasury-Fed Accord, which established the modern separation between the two institutions, to give Treasury greater authority over major changes to the Fed's balance sheet.

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