Imports Drag Q2 Economic Growth to 1.5%
Imports Drag Q2 Economic Growth to 1.5%
The News
The U.S. economy grew at a sluggish 1.5% annual pace from April through June, the Commerce Department reported Wednesday, unchanged from its first estimate of second-quarter growth.
Growth decelerated from the 2.1% pace recorded from January through March.
The drag came from imports, not from American shoppers: consumer spending, about 70% of U.S. economic activity, rose at a healthy 3.4% annual clip, up from 0.5% in the first quarter.
Why Growth Looked Weak
Imports are subtracted from GDP because the measure is meant to count only domestic production. They rose at a 12.5% annual pace in the second quarter — driven in part by a surge in shipments of computer chips and other products tied to artificial intelligence investment — and sliced 1.64 percentage points off the growth number.
Underneath the headline figure, the Associated Press reports the economy has been surprisingly resilient despite the fighting with Iran and the spike in energy prices it caused. Business investment excluding housing rose at an 8.5% pace, reflecting the AI investment boom. A measure of the economy's underlying strength, which strips out volatile government spending and trade, grew at a 4.2% rate, up from 1.7% in the first quarter.
Housing investment ticked up for the first time since the end of 2024, after a stretch in which high mortgage rates depressed the market.
Timeline
GDP grows at a 2.1% annual pace; consumer spending rises just 0.5%.
GDP growth slows to 1.5% as imports jump 12.5% and consumer spending rebounds to 3.4%.
Consumer spending posts its smallest increase in seven months, MarketWatch reported, suggesting the economy lost some steam at the start of the third quarter.
Commerce releases its second of three estimates of second-quarter GDP — 1.5%, unchanged.
Reactions
The number landed exactly where Wall Street expected. ZeroHedge called the second revision "right on top of expectations, and unchanged from the previous estimate."
MarketWatch was more cautious, asking whether the economy is "getting weaker" after July's spending slowdown, which it attributed in part to the end of the 2026 World Cup and the start of the third quarter.
The Associated Press and other outlets covering the release framed the quarter the same way: sluggish on the surface, sturdier underneath, with strong household spending and a business investment boom doing the work.
What's Next
The third and final Commerce Department estimate of second-quarter GDP is due Sept. 30. That report can revise the 1.5% figure up or down.
The open question for the second half of the year is whether July's slower spending was a one-month lull or the start of a genuine cooldown in the part of the economy that has been carrying it.
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