Inflation Holds at 3.7% as Spending Stalls
Inflation Holds at 3.7% as Spending Stalls
The News
Inflation stayed stuck in July and American shoppers stopped spending, according to Commerce Department data released Wednesday.
The personal consumption expenditures price index — the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge — rose a seasonally adjusted 0.2% for the month, leaving the annual rate at 3.7%.
Both figures came in 0.1 percentage point above the Dow Jones consensus, CNBC reported. Economists surveyed by FactSet had expected a 0.1% monthly rise and a slowdown in the annual rate to 3.6%, according to CNN.
Consumer spending, adjusted for inflation, was flat from the month before — a sharp slowdown from a 0.4% gain in June.
The Numbers
Headline PCE: up 0.2% in July, up 3.7% over 12 months.
Core PCE, which strips out volatile food and energy prices: up 0.2% for the month and 3.3% from a year earlier — in line with forecasts. Fed policymakers generally treat core as the better read on the longer-term trend, CNBC noted.
Inflation-adjusted consumer spending: flat in July, after 0.4% growth in June.
Second-quarter GDP: unrevised at 1.5%, Reuters reported Wednesday.
The Fed targets 2% inflation on the PCE measure. July's reading is well above that.
Timeline
Inflation-adjusted consumer spending rose 0.4%.
PCE prices rose 0.2% on the month; the annual rate held at 3.7%; core prices rose 0.2% and 3.3% annually; real spending was flat.
The Commerce Department published the July personal income and outlays report, which contains the PCE index. The same morning, Reuters reported second-quarter GDP was left unrevised at 1.5%.
Reactions
Coverage across the spectrum landed on the same conclusion: prices are not cooling on schedule.
CNN said consumers "reined in their spending in July as inflation remained stubbornly high."
The Washington Examiner framed the report as evidence of continuing "affordability woes" for households.
Reuters described US inflation as "sticky" in July.
What's Next
The PCE index arrives monthly as part of the Commerce Department's personal income and outlays report, which tracks how Americans earn, spend and save — so the next installment will show whether the spending freeze was a one-month blip or the start of a pullback.
With headline inflation running at 3.7% against a 2% target, the report gives the Fed's inflation hawks fresh ammunition. Both CNN and CNBC flagged their reports as developing.
More
The gap between the headline and core numbers matters. Core at 3.3% came in exactly where economists expected; the headline at 3.7% did not — meaning the upside surprise showed up in the food and energy costs that hit household budgets first and hardest.
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