Russian Strikes Knock Out Half of Ukraine’s Gas Production

Ukraine’s gas infrastructure — able to meet domestic demand before the Russian full-scale invasion — has come under increasingly intensive missile and drone strikes since the beginning of this year.

Gas is essential during the often harsh winters in Ukraine, where households rely almost entirely on the fuel for heating. Russia has targeted the country’s energy infrastructure every winter since its invasion in February of 2022 to erode the civilian population’s morale and support for resisting Moscow’s war.

So far this year, Ukraine has purchased 4.58 billion cubic meters of gas from foreign suppliers, including 3.67 billion since the end of the last heating season. While Kyiv has estimated that by the end of this year the country’s import needs will reach 5.8 billion, it told allies earlier this week the figure may rise because of Russian attacks, according to the people.

Increased gas supplies to Ukraine from the European Union could tighten the region’s market, and the concerns have already contributed to a rally in European gas prices earlier this week. The EU gas inventories are still below historic norms, leaving the region vulnerable to potential disruptions. Cold winter could quickly drain reserves and cause more price spikes, adding pressure on consumers.

A key risk for Kyiv is that damage to domestic production may worsen as both Ukraine and Russia continue to increase strikes on each other’s energy infrastructure. Ukraine has also targeted Russian refineries in an attempt to curb the vast revenue Moscow gets from energy exports, which is then funneled into the war effort.

Russia intensified its strikes after Ukraine halted the transit of Russian pipeline gas to the European Union at the beginning of the year.

Kyiv estimates the cost of direct physical damage to the energy sector since the start of the invasion at $20.51 billion, including $14.8 billion in the electricity sector, $1.35 billion in the gas sector and $1.7 billion in the oil sector. The figures don’t include losses related to the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, which Moscow’s forces seized early in the war.