Walmart Beats Estimates, Trims Outlook; Shares Slide 6%

Walmart Beats Estimates, Trims Outlook; Shares Slide 6%

The News

Walmart beat Wall Street's second-quarter estimates on Thursday and then told investors the rest of the year will be softer than they expected. Shares slid 6% before the opening bell.

Sales rose 5.9% to $187.94 billion in the three months ended July 31, ahead of the $186.62 billion analysts predicted, according to FactSet. Adjusted earnings came in at 81 cents a share against the 74 cents Wall Street looked for.

The outlook is where the mood changed. For the third quarter Walmart guided to 62 to 64 cents a share and sales growth of 3% to 3.5%. Analysts had penciled in 68 cents and $188.19 billion.

For the full year, Walmart now expects $2.80 to $2.87 a share and sales up 4% to 5%. Analysts expected $2.90 a share and $752.06 billion in sales.

What the numbers say about the American shopper

Comparable sales at U.S. stores — stores open at least a year, plus online sales tied to them — rose 2.6%. That is a step down from the 4.1% increase in the first quarter.

Strip out the wellness category that includes Walmart's pharmacies and comparable sales rose 3.4%. Walmart said the pharmacy line was hit by federal legislation requiring pharmacies to dispense some high-cost Medicare drugs at capped prices.

U.S. online sales rose 24%, down from 26% in the first quarter.

Walmart is treated as a barometer of consumer spending for a simple reason: the company says more than 150 million customers are in its stores or on its website every week. Its biggest market share gains are coming from households making more than $100,000 a year — wealthier shoppers trading down into the same aisles.

Walmart is among the first major retailers to report second-quarter results, which analysts and economists read as a gauge of whether price pressures from the conflict in Iran have changed how Americans shop. The backdrop is not encouraging: U.S. data released last Friday showed retail sales were surprisingly weak in July, and a University of Michigan reading found growing pessimism among Americans struggling with higher costs for gas, groceries and nearly everything else.

Timeline

First quarter:

U.S. comparable sales up 4.1%; U.S. online sales up 26%.

July 31:

Walmart's second quarter closes.

Last Friday:

Federal data shows July retail sales came in surprisingly weak; the University of Michigan consumer reading shows growing pessimism.

Wednesday:

Target reports its own second quarter, including $994 million in pretax tariff refund benefits from the U.S. government, according to Associated Press reporting on the results. Target signaled it would put some of the money toward lower prices.

Thursday:

Walmart reports a beat and a reserved full-year outlook; shares fall 6% premarket.

Reactions

The market's verdict was immediate and negative — a 6% premarket drop on a quarter that beat on both sales and earnings. Investors were reacting to the guidance, not the results.

Walmart's own explanation for the weakest line in the quarter was regulatory, not economic: it attributed the drag on wellness comparable sales to the federal price caps on some high-cost Medicare drugs.

Net income was $6.37 billion, or 80 cents a share, down from $7.03 billion, or 88 cents a share, a year earlier.

What's Next

The third quarter is the first test of the new guidance, and Walmart has set the bar below where analysts had it — on both earnings and sales growth.

More big retailers report in the coming weeks, and the read-across is the real story: whether Walmart's caution is a Walmart problem or an American consumer problem.

More

The contrast with Target is worth holding in view. Target's quarter was lifted by a $994 million pretax tariff refund from the government — a one-time windfall the company said it would partly spend on lower prices. Walmart's quarter had no such windfall in it, and the company's caution runs to the full year rather than a single line item.

What Walmart is describing is a shopper who is still showing up in enormous numbers — 150 million a week — including higher-income households the chain did not used to win, but who are being squeezed hard enough that America's largest retailer will not promise Wall Street the year it was promising three months ago.

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